Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torpedo-BelAZ win with a probability of 46.22%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for BATE Borisov had a probability of 25.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Torpedo-BelAZ win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.59%) and 2-1 (8.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.94%), while for a BATE Borisov win it was 0-1 (10.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Torpedo-BelAZ would win this match.