Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 39.69%. A win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had a probability of 32.33% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.18%) and 0-2 (7.47%). The likeliest Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win was 1-0 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for BATE Borisov in this match.