Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtyor Soligorsk win with a probability of 55.65%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Smorgon had a probability of 19.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtyor Soligorsk win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.1%) and 1-2 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.63%), while for a Smorgon win it was 1-0 (7.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shakhtyor Soligorsk would win this match.