Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neman win with a probability of 44.89%. A win for BATE Borisov had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neman win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.97%) and 0-2 (8.24%). The likeliest BATE Borisov win was 1-0 (8.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Neman would win this match.