Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 49.72%. A win for Gomel had a probability of 26.09% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.57%) and 2-0 (8.35%). The likeliest Gomel win was 0-1 (6.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.