Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torpedo-BelAZ win with a probability of 52.11%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had a probability of 21.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Torpedo-BelAZ win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.73%) and 1-2 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.23%), while for an Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win it was 1-0 (8.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Torpedo-BelAZ would win this match.