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Mainz logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 32
Apr 30, 2022 at 2.30pm UK
Coface Arena
Bayern logo

Mainz 05
3 - 1
Bayern

Burkardt (18'), Niakhate (27'), Barreiro (57')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Lewandowski (33')
Kimmich (43'), Hernandez (65'), Pavard (73'), Sane (86')

Preview: Mainz 05 vs. Bayern Munich - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Bayern Munich return to action for the first since being crowned Bundesliga champions for a 10th successive season when they travel to Mainz 05 on Saturday.

The visitors wrapped up the title with victory in Der Klassiker last weekend, whilst the hosts were on the wrong end of a thumping as they continue to finish the season poorly.


Match preview

Mainz 05 coach Bo Svensson on February 26, 2022© Reuters

Although the away record of Mainz has been poor this season, a 5-0 hammering at the hands of a struggling Wolfsburg side last Friday will not have been expected.

With Bo Svensson's side already 1-0 down early on, Niklas Tauer's straight red card midway through the first half certainly did not help matters, before an almighty collapse for the remainder of the opening 45 saw Mainz head into the break five goals behind.

A solid defensive display in the second half ensured that the scoreline remained as respectable as possible for Die Nullfunfer, but overall it was another disappointing result that continued the theme of their struggles in the final few weeks of the campaign.

A blistering start to the season saw Mainz making an unlikely challenge for the European spots, but a five-match winless streak means Saturday's hosts head into matchday 32 in 10th place, with their slim hopes of reaching the top six ending as a result of the heavy defeat at the Volkswagen Arena.

The one positive that the Danish boss can take from his team's poor run in recent times is the fact that four of the five setbacks have been on their travels, with Mainz returning to the Opel Arena on Saturday boasting the division's fourth-best home record.

Just two defeats have been suffered, and remarkably only eight goals have been conceded, in their 15 league outings in front of their own supporters this campaign, and Mainz will look to extend that impressive record by spoiling the Bayern party on Saturday.

Bayern Munich's Robert Lewandowski celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on April 9, 2022© Reuters

Meanwhile, Bayern will look to celebrate a 10th successive Bundesliga title in style on Saturday, which they sealed in the perfect fashion by defeating nearest challengers Borussia Dortmund on Germany's grand stage last time out.

Serge Gnabry and Robert Lewandowski netted in the opening stages to provide the Bavarians with the early control, and with their visitors putting up little fight despite Emre Can's penalty shortly after the interval, Bayern strolled to a relatively comfortable victory.

Jamal Musiala sealed the three points with a late strike in the 3-1 scoreline, as Julian Nagelsmann's side moved to an unassailable 12-point lead at the summit with just three games remaining.

Disappointing early exits in the DFB-Pokal and Champions League mean that only the bare minimum has been achieved in the former RB Leipzig boss's first season in charge, whilst brief inconsistent spells throughout the league campaign have also been unpunished by the challenging BVB.

However, it cannot be denied that Bayern thoroughly deserve the Bundesliga crown once more, and with no participation in any other competition remaining, full concentration will be on finishing the campaign strongly in the remaining weeks.

Top goalscorer Lewandowski will also be keen to continue his fine form in the final three games, beginning at Mainz on Saturday, as the Polish striker looks to add to his 33 league goals already netted up to this point.

Mainz 05 Bundesliga form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L

Bayern Munich Bundesliga form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W

Bayern Munich form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W



Team News

Bayern Munich's Kingsley Coman celebrates scoring their first goal on February 16, 2022© Reuters

Following his red card in last weekend's humiliating defeat, Tauer will be unavailable to take his place in the Mainz back line against the champions on Saturday.

Alexander Hack is likely to deputise alongside Stefan Bell and captain Moussa Niakhate, with the trio being tasked with keeping Lewandowski and co quiet.

Jeremiah St Juste remains unavailable at the back too, whilst Lee Jae-sung, Paul Nebel and Delano Burgzorg look to be out for the remainder of the season.

As for the visitors, Kingsley Coman could miss out on the trip after picking up an ankle injury, with Leroy Sane and Musiala battling it out for the Frenchman's starting spot.

Corentin Tolisso is ruled out once more due to a hamstring problem, whilst Bouna Sarr and Omar Richards are doubtful because of a knee injury and illness respectively.

Other than the likely enforced change in the wide areas, Nagelsmann is unlikely to rotate his starting lineup any further despite wrapping up the title last weekend.

Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Hack, Bell, Niakhate; Widmer, Barreiro, Stach, Kohr, Martin; Onisiwo, Burkardt

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Upamecano, Hernandez, Davies; Kimmich, Goretzka; Gnabry, Muller, Musiala; Lewandowski


SM words green background

We say: Mainz 05 1-3 Bayern Munich

It is difficult to imagine Bayern taking their foot off the gas here despite having nothing left to play for, so we are predicting an away victory.

The hosts continue to finish the season poorly so they are unlikely to be able to contain the firepower of their visitors, although the intense atmosphere and strong record at the Opel Arena mean they should cause some nervy moments for the champions.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:curl



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Written by
Matthew Tranter

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 67.39%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 13.72%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.19%) and 1-2 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.93%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-0 (4.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Mainz 05 vs Bayern

Mainz 05
16.9%
Draw
11.9%
Bayern Munich
71.2%
59
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