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Mainz logo
Bundesliga | Gameweek 31
Apr 24, 2021 at 2.30pm UK
Coface Arena
Bayern logo

Mainz 05
2 - 1
Bayern

Burkardt (3'), Quaison (37')
Mwene (58'), St Juste (59'), da Costa (87')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Lewandowski (90+4')
Boateng (36'), Goretzka (41'), Alaba (42'), Lewandowski (73')

Preview: Mainz 05 vs. Bayern Munich - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Bayern Munich, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Mainz 05 take on Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga on Saturday, with the visitors able to seal their ninth successive league title with a victory.

The hosts, meanwhile, have moved five points clear of the relegation zone after an impressive unbeaten run of six matches.


Match preview

Mainz 05 coach Bo Svensson pictured in February 2021© Reuters

Having lost their first six matches of the campaign before picking up only six points from their first 13 games, few would have given Mainz any chance of surviving this season.

However, since appointing Bo Svensson as manager in early January, the 41-year-old has guided his side to a remarkable run of 25 points from 16 matches.

Extrapolated across the season, that points-per-game rate would currently have Die Nullfunfer in a Europa League qualifying position in sixth place, which shows their astonishing improvement under the man who spent seven years at the club as a player between 2007 and 2014.

Mainz secured their fourth win in five matches with a nervy 1-0 win at relegation rivals Werder Bremen on Wednesday, with Adam Szalai scoring the only goal of a cagey affair after 16 minutes.

The visitors certainly rode their luck on occasions, particularly when Joshua Sargent's equaliser moments before half time was ruled out after VAR adjudged Kevin Mohwald to have fouled Mainz goalkeeper Robin Zentner in the build-up.

Bremen, who were condemned to their sixth successive defeat and look in perilous danger of relegation, had 20 shots and 65% possession across the 90 minutes, but could not find a legitimate goal.

Svensson will be fully aware that a much better performance will almost certainly be required to avoid defeat to Bayern, who will be fully motivated in their hunt for another Bundesliga title.

Equally, though, his side have put themselves in a position where one or two defeats before the end of the campaign would be unlikely to prove fatal, given that Hertha Berlin and FC Koln find themselves five points behind them in the table.

Bayern Munich manager Hansi Flick pictured on April 10, 2021© Reuters

Despite going through a tumultuous week, which saw the club's Champions League defence end at the quarter-final stage to Paris Saint-Germain on away goals as well as Hansi Flick confirming that he will be leaving the club at the end of the season, Bayern took a huge step towards retaining the Bundesliga title by beating Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 on Tuesday.

RB Leipzig's earlier surprise defeat to FC Koln meant that victory would move Bayern 10 points clear of Julian Nagelsmann's side with only four matches remaining, and the Bavarians carried out their task with minimal fuss.

Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, standing in for the injured Robert Lewandowski once again, scored for the third successive match after only seven minutes, before Joshua Kimmich doubled his side's lead six minutes later after Leverkusen failed to clear their defensive lines.

Regardless of how Leipzig fare against Stuttgart on Sunday, Bayern will be crowned German champions for a ninth successive season should they defeat Mainz.

They are unlikely to find matters easy, though, against a side which has performed a minor miracle to escape the relegation zone, but cannot rest easy in terms of survival yet.

Mainz 05 Bundesliga form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W

Bayern Munich Bundesliga form:
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W

Bayern Munich form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W



Team News

Bayern Munich's Robert Lewandowski reacts on January 17, 2021© Reuters

Mainz are likely to remain without Danny da Costa due to personal reasons, while Paul Nebel and Luca Kilian are injured.

Svensson may bring Jonathan Burkhardt back into the side for his added workrate and ability to drop deep, with Karim Onisiwo potentially making way, but otherwise it is likely to be an unchanged XI from the side which narrowly dispatched Bremen in midweek.

Lewandowski returned to full training during the week and may even return to Bayern's starting XI, with the Poland striker desperate to break Gerd Muller's record of 40 goals in a Bundesliga season.

The 33-year-old requires six goals from Bayern's final four games to break Muller's long-standing record set in the 1971-72 season, which looks a tall order for a player returning from a month out due to a knee injury.

Only a fool would write a goalscorer of his calibre off, though; after all, he is averaging very close to 1.50 goals per game in the league this season.

However, Bayern have no fixture next week due to the DFB-Pokal semi-final's taking place, so Lewandowski may be eased into things from the bench once the match has potentially opened up, particularly given Choupo-Moting's excellent form.

Niklas Sule and Serge Gnabry will also hope to be involved having appeared to recover from a thigh issue and COVID-19 respectively, but likewise Flick may see no reason to rush the pair back into things.

Leon Goretzka could start in midfield having returned from injury from the bench against Leverkusen, with Flick having the option of resting David Alaba, Kimmich or Alphonso Davies.

Marc Roca, Ron-Thorben Hoffmann, Corentin Tolisso, Douglas Costa and Malik Tillman are all ruled out of the trip to Mainz and face a race against time to feature again this season.

Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; St Juste, Bell, Niakhate; Brosinski, Barreiro, Kohr, Boetius, Mwene; Szalai, Burkhardt

Bayern Munich possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Pavard, Boateng, Hernandez, Davies; Kimmich, Goretzka; Coman, Muller, Musiala; Choupo-Moting


SM words green background

We say: Mainz 05 1-3 Bayern Munich

Despite Mainz's brilliant form of late, we expect Bayern to wrap up a ninth consecutive Bundesliga title in style.

Svensson's side were actually quite underwhelming against Bremen despite gaining a crucial win, with Bayern's deeper squad likely to pay dividends during a congested schedule.

Whether Lewandowski starts or not, it would be little surprise to see the Poland hitman get himself on the scoresheet at least once as he looks to chase down Muller's record.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



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Written by
Brett Curtis

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 74.72%. A draw had a probability of 15% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 10.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.07%) and 0-3 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.83%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 2-1 (3.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Mainz 05 vs Bayern

Mainz 05
13.6%
Draw
8.0%
Bayern Munich
78.4%
88
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RB Leipzig coach Julian Nagelsmann pictured on February 16, 2021
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Bayern MunichBayern13103041103133
2Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt1383233181527
3Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen1375130201026
4RB Leipzig137332114724
5Freiburg147342019124
6Wolfsburg146353125621
7Borussia DortmundDortmund136342420421
8Stuttgart135532623320
9Mainz 05Mainz135442318519
10Werder Bremen135442024-419
11Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach135351918118
12Union BerlinUnion Berlin134451214-216
13Augsburg134451625-916
14Hoffenheim133461825-713
15St Pauli133281117-611
16Heidenheim133191728-1110
17Holstein Kiel1312101333-205
18VfL BochumVfL Bochum1302111034-242


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