Bayer Leverkusen will be looking to solidify their place in the Bundesliga's Champions League spots when they welcome Augsburg to the BayArena on Saturday.
The hosts picked up their first win in six games last weekend, whilst the visitors are winless in four in their quest to avoid the drop.
Match preview
© Reuters
Despite lacking a clinical edge in front of goal last weekend, Leverkusen put in a remarkable attacking display at their Rhein neighbours Borussia Monchengladbach.
Gerardo Seoane's men registered an incredible total of 32 shots on their opponent's goal, of which 14 hit the target, only for Yann Sommer's excellent goalkeeping display, coupled with their poor quality of finishing, preventing them from recording a far more comfortable scoreline than the eventual 2-1 win.
Patrik Schick missed an opportunity to open the scoring early in the second half, with his saved penalty being turned home by Robert Andrich from the rebound.
However, the Bundesliga's second highest goalscorer this season, with only Robert Lewandowski ahead of him, made no mistake when he extended their lead to 2-0 later in the half, which was the Czech Republic striker's 18th league goal in only his 16th appearance of the campaign.
Nico Elvedi pulled one back for their opponents to set up a nervy finish despite the onslaught from Die Werkself, but even though Kerem Demirbay missed their second penalty of the evening in the closing stages, Leverkusen sealed the three points.
As mentioned above, the victory was Leverkusen's first in six matches across all competitions either side of the winter break, and was one that lifted Seoane's side to third in the table ahead of matchday 20 at the weekend.
With eight points separating Saturday's hosts from second-placed Borussia Dortmund, and a 14-point gap to leaders Bayern Munich, sealing a return to the Champions League will be the goal between now and May, and Seoane will be hoping his side can put together some momentum by recording back-to-back victories at the weekend.
© Reuters
Meanwhile, Augsburg head to Leverkusen for their third consecutive game of 2022 against a side chasing European football next season, with previous matches at Hoffenheim and at home to Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend to begin the New Year.
After falling 3-1 in Hoffenheim, Markus Weinzierl's side bounced back to put in a solid display and earn a 1-1 draw against Die Adler last Sunday, with Michael Gregoritsch netting for the second game in a row to earn his side a point.
As previously mentioned, it does leave Fuggerstadter winless in their last four fixtures, and with just one victory across the last seven overall.
As a result, Augsburg begin matchday 20 in 15th place in the Bundesliga, with just one point separating them from Arminia Bielefeld and Stuttgart in the relegation playoff spot and drop zone respectively.
Three points would therefore be vital for the relegation-threatened visitors on Saturday, but that remains a tough ask for a side so poor on their travels this season, with just seven of their 19 points, and six of their 19 goals scored, being picked up away from the WWK Arena.
In addition, Augsburg's past 22 meetings with their hosts have yielded no victories, so if Weinzierl's side are to pull away from danger at the weekend, they will have to do it against all the odds.
- W
- L
- D
- L
- D
- W
- L
- L
- D
- L
- D
- W
- L
- W
- D
- D
- L
- D
Team News
© Reuters
As well as missing a penalty last weekend, Demirbay also picked up his fifth yellow card of the season, meaning the midfielder will serve a one-match suspension for the hosts on Saturday.
Fellow central midfielders Julian Baumgartlinger, Exequiel Palacios and Charles Aranguiz remain injured for another couple of weeks, and with Nadiem Amiri nearing a move away from the club, the influential Florian Wirtz could be required to drop into a deeper role alongside Andrich.
Odilon Kossounou and Edmond Tapsoba remain on international duty, Paulinho and Niklas Lomb miss out due to COVID-19, and Andrey Lunev and Daley Sinkgraven are also unavailable due to injury, to leave Seoane short on depth in his squad.
As for the visitors, full-back Iago's muscle injury that forced him off at half time last weekend looks set to keep him out for a couple of weeks, so Mads Pedersen is expected to deputise.
Second-choice goalkeeper Tomas Koubek misses out due to COVID-19, but the only other absentee is Tobias Strobl, who is likely to miss the remainder of the season due to a serious knee injury.
New signing Ricardo Pepi will be hoping to lead the line alongside Gregoritsch once more, but Alfred Finnbogason and Andre Hahn will be pushing for starts in his place.
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; Frimpong, Tah, Hincapie, Bakker; Andrich, Wirtz; Bellarabi, Adli, Diaby; Schick
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Gumny, Gouweleeuw, Oxford, Pedersen; Vargas, Maier, Dorsch, Hahn; Pepi, Gregoritsch
We say: Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 Augsburg
Leverkusen will be expected to win comfortably on Saturday, with their visitors enduring poor form on the road this season and a dreadful record against their opponents overall.
Schick will be hoping to continue his fine form in front of goal, and we expect him to be amongst the scorers in a dominant Leverkusen display.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 62.27%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 17.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.19%) and 1-0 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.1%), while for an Augsburg win it was 1-2 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
