Austin FC return to Major League Soccer action this weekend with a chance to break their franchise record for consecutive victories when they host the Vancouver Whitecaps on Saturday at Q2 Stadium.
After a furious 3-2 comeback win last week versus DC United, the Verde and Black have won two straight domestic encounters, while the Caps saw another second half comeback fall short, losing 2-1 to CF Montreal.
Match preview
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The sophomore campaign in the Texas capital has been quite the story, as Austin continue to climb up the Western Conference standings, sitting in second, just two points behind Los Angeles FC.
Over the off-season, Josh Wolff and his staff made it a point to bring in character players who are familiar with this league, and that character has been evident since their opening match of 2022.
They have yet to lose this year when conceding the opening goal, winning in the most unlikely of scenarios last Saturday, scoring three goals in the final 10 minutes to erase a 2-0 deficit.
Winning games like that in such dramatic fashion can provide your team with a huge psychological boost, but Wolff is looking for more consistency from his group throughout 90 minutes, with six of their last seven goals coming in the second half.
On Wednesday, however, the shoe was on the other foot, as Austin squandered a 1-0 lead, conceding twice in the final 10 minutes plus stoppage time in their U.S. Open Cup defeat to San Antonio FC (2-1).
Currently, on their longest unbeaten run in franchise history (four games), the Verde and Black are finding ways to earn points, which could pay off as the regular season rolls along, and we get a clearer picture of the teams in the hunt for a playoff berth.
Their Achilles heel in their inaugural campaign has been their biggest strength so far in 2022, as they are tied for the most goals scored in MLS this season (17) after finishing dead-last in that category a year ago (35).
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It was another too little too late scenario for the Vancouver Whitecaps last weekend as they dug themselves a hole in the second half against their Canadian rivals and failed to wake up in time.
A year ago, they were one of the great turnaround stories in the league, but injuries and a handful of players regressing has them with the second-worst record in MLS after seven games (four points) this year.
The passionate speech given by manager Vanni Sartini following their narrow 3-2 loss to the Portland Timbers seemed to fall on deaf ears, as Vancouver were asleep for the opening 20 minutes of the first half against Montreal and paid the price when Djordje Mihailovic scored in the opening minute.
This team struggle when having to chase games, losing five of their previous six encounters in which they have trailed at the half.
The Caps are not a team with powerful players in the midfield, relying instead on being aggressive and applying a lot of pressure to get the ball back.
Away from home, Sartini believes that his players are not as quick and aggressive as they should be, which could explain why they have lost five straight road fixtures, including their playoff contest last year and are winless in seven consecutive matches as the visitors.
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Team News
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Austin midfielder Diego Fagundez helped kickstart their comeback against the Black and Red setting up their opening goal from Danny Hoesen, along with the winner by Ruben Gabrielsen, while Sebastian Driussi tallied in between for his fifth of the campaign.
Jhohan Romana remains out with a right hamstring strain, while Maximiliano Urruti has two goals in his last three MLS encounters, putting him in a tie for second on the team along with Ethan Finlay and Cecilio Dominguez.
There were three new players in the starting 11 against DC who were not in the opening lineup against Minnesota United as Jon Gallagher, Nick Lima and Jhojan Valencia were in, while Hector Jimenez, Zan Kolmanic and Finlay began on the substitutes bench.
Brian White, who led Vancouver in goals a season ago, finally got his 2022 campaign off and running, scoring his first of the year in the defeat to Montreal.
Their previous matchup against Austin last year saw Erik Godoy and Deiber Caicedo each tally, helping the Caps to a 2-1 win, while Thomas Hasal made four stops to collect the victory.
Caio Alexandre remains out of the lineup following his foot surgery, while they made two changes to their starting 11 last weekend, as Tristan Blackmon and Javain Brown came in to replace Cristian Gutierrez and Ryan Raposo.
Austin FC possible starting lineup:
Stuver; Gallagher, Gabrielsen, Cascante, Jimenez; Ring, Pereira; Felipe, Driussi, Fagundez; Urruti
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Hasal; Nerwinski, Veselinovic, Blackmon; Dajome, Berhalter, Teibert, Brown; Gauld; White, Cavallini
We say: Austin FC 2-1 Vancouver Whitecaps
The Whitecaps have made it a habit of waiting far too long to get into a game this season, and to do that against one of the most dynamic and potent MLS sides in 2022 is asking for trouble.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 63.88%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Vancouver Whitecaps had a probability of 15.73%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.66%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.66%), while for a Vancouver Whitecaps win it was 0-1 (4.71%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.
