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Athletico Paranaense
Brasileiro | Gameweek 29
Oct 30, 2021 at 9pm UK
Arena da Baixada
Santos

Athletico PR
0 - 1
Santos


Ivaldo (68')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Madson (49')
Paulo (67'), Vinicius (86')

Preview: Athletico Paranaense vs. Santos - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Brasileiro clash between Athletico Paranaense and Santos, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Relegation-threatened Santos will look to build on a crucial win when they return to Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A action on Saturday, with a trip to take on Athletico Paranaense.

A victory over Fluminense saw the visitors move three points clear of the drop zone, while their hosts sit just two points better off in 12th spot.


Match preview

Athletico Paranaense coach Alberto Valentim on October 17, 2021© Reuters

After enjoying a strong start to the league season, sitting in the top six until mid-August, Athletico Paranaense have suffered a major dip in form in recent months, triggering a drop down the table.

The Rubro-Negro have now won just three of their last 15 games in the Brazilian top flight, picking up a disappointing tally of 11 points in that time after collecting 23 points from the first 12 outings.

Alberto Valentim's side have failed to win any of their last four Brasileiro games, most recently losing 3-0 to Fortaleza on Saturday, having trailed by two goals from the seventh minute.

However, they will now hope to take confidence from a cup win on Thursday, as Nikao netted a brace and Ze Ivaldo added a third in a 3-0 away defeat of Flamengo in the second leg of their Copa do Brasil semi-final tie, seeing them through to the final with a 5-2 aggregate win.

Having now dropped to 12th spot, with work still to do to confirm survival, El Paranaense will look to build on that with a much-needed league win on Saturday, but they face a tough test.

Santos' Lucas Braga celebrates with teammates after an own goal scored by Libertad and Santos' second on August 13, 2021© Reuters

Santos arrive on the back of a confidence-boosting win on Wednesday, as they defeated Fluminense.

The Peixe headed into the game with the threat of dropping into the relegation zone, having won just one of their previous 15 games, but Fabio Carille's men pulled out a crucial performance.

Madson opened the scoring in the first half, and Diego Tardelli doubled their lead on the hour mark, with Santos seeing out a 2-0 win to secure their seventh three-point haul of the season.

That saw them move three points clear of 17th-placed Juventude, and the Alvinegro will now look to build on that and continue their climb to a more comfortable position.

Athletico Paranaense Brasileiro form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • L

Athletico Paranaense form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W

Santos Brasileiro form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • W



Team News

Santos' Marinho celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on June 25, 2021© Reuters

Athletico Paranaense will likely deploy a similar side to the one that recorded an impressive away win at Flamengo last time out, with Valentim set to stick with a 3-4-3 system.

Winger Nikao will start with renewed confidence following his brace, and he will likely flank Renato Kayzer, with David Terans operating on the other wing.

Kayzer has netted 10 goals across all competitions for El Paranaense this season, with the wingers having each contributed eight, while Terans has also provided seven assists in 22 league appearances this season.

Santos' side should also be very similar to the one that they fielded last time out, after securing a crucial league victory in a tough encounter.

Experienced forward Diego Tardelli should again lead the line, after netting his first goal for the club last time out, while Marinho offers plenty of quality from the wide areas.

Their shape somewhat mirrors that of the hosts, with Danilo Boza, Robson Reis and Emiliano Velazquez expected to line up in a back three, while the wide threat of Lucas Braga and Madson is incorporated in wing-back roles.

Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Santos; Henrique, Heleno, Hernandez; Marcinho, Cittadini, Erick, Abner; Nikao, Kayzer, Terans

Santos possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Boza, Reis, Velazquez; Madson, Zanocelo, Jonatan, Braga; Marinho, Tardelli, Guilherme


SM words green background

We say: Athletico Paranaense 1-1 Santos

Had the hosts not picked up an elusive victory in the cup, we would have predicted Santos to continue building momentum with a second straight win, but we now expect El Paranaense to come in with renewed confidence.

As a result, we anticipate a share of the spoils between two sides who are keen to pick up a result to move further away from the bottom four, and head in with relatively similar quality.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data



ID:468661:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect9535:
Written by
Sam Varley

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 42.52%. A win for Santos had a probability of 29.56% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Santos win was 0-1 (10.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Athletico PR vs Santos

Athletico Paranaense
20.0%
Draw
60.0%
Santos
20.0%
5
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14Gremio38129174450-645
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16BragantinoBragantino381014144448-444
17Athletico ParanaenseAthletico PR38119184046-642
18CriciumaCriciuma38911184261-1938
19Atletico GoianienseAtletico GO3879222958-2930
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