In what has already been a particularly strange La Liga campaign, this Saturday, league leaders Atletico Madrid will play Levante for the second time in less than a week.
Due to La Liga rescheduling in September, Levante managed to hold Diego Simeone's Atleti to a 1-1 draw on Wednesday evening. This weekend, Simeone will aim to get his revenge at the Wanda Metropolitano.
Match preview
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Following an early goal from Levante poacher Enis Bardhi, star midfielder Marcos Llorente's 37th-minute strike saved Simeone's blushes, but it was not enough to win the tie.
The stalemate was Atleti's second draw in three games, a poor run of form by Simeone's current standards.
Masking his frustration after the game, Simeone told the press: "We found ourselves against a tough opponent who do things well. They have improved defensively, they are well organised and use the ball well."
Regardless of recent results, Atleti remain six points clear at the top of the table. Three points this weekend could see Los Rojiblancos extend their lead even more.
Fortunately for Atleti, Simeone's side have avoided defeat in their last 12 home games against Valencian sides, a streak which goes back to April 2017.
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For 11th-placed Levante, their midweek stalemate has inaugurated what could turn out to be a momentous week for the Valencian outfit.
One point against Atleti is considered fortunate, but any more would surely propel Paco Lopez's side into dreamland.
However, three points on Saturday might be asking a bit too much of Levante. Lopez's men are winless in their last 14 away games against Atleti.
Nevertheless, Lopez could turn to in-form striker Roger Marti to come up with the goods. Roger has scored three of the Levante's last four goals away from home.
Atletico Madrid La Liga form: WWWDWD
Levante La Liga form: DDWDLD
Levante form (all competitions): WWDDLD
Team News
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Atleti, whose recent misfortunes have coincided with a spate of COVID-19 absentees, will have a number of first-team players, such as Joao Felix, back for this tie.
Thomas Lemar, Hector Herrera and new boy Moussa Dembele are all still unavailable due to COVID-19. Kieran Trippier remains suspended.
Paco Lopez also has a number of absentees to contend with ahead of this tie.
Gonzalo Melero, Nikola Vukcevic and Jose Campana all remain unavailable due to injury.
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Savic, Gimenez, Hermoso; Vrsaljko, Koke, Saul, Llorente, Carrasco; Suarez, Correa
Levante possible starting lineup:
Fernandez; Jorge Miramon, Postigo, Rober, Clerc; De Frutos, Radoja, Malsa, Morales; Roger, Bardhi
We say: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Levante
Levante were fortunate to come away with a point from the midweek game, and we do not think it is likely that Paco Lopez's side have what it takes to get a similar result this time. We are going for a 2-0 win for Atleti.
Top tip
Francis Buchanan
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 57.39%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Levante had a probability of 20.22%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.92%) and 2-0 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.58%), while for a Levante win it was 0-1 (5.65%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
