Arguably the biggest match of the upcoming La Liga weekend will take place in Seville on Sunday evening, as Real Betis welcome Atletico Madrid to Estadio Benito Villamarin.
Real Betis - third in the table - booked their spot in the Copa del Rey final on Thursday evening courtesy of a 1-1 draw with Rayo Vallecano in the second leg of their semi-final, while fifth-placed Atletico will enter the contest off the back of a 2-0 victory over Celta Vigo in the league last weekend.
Match preview
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Real Betis looked to be heading for extra-time in the second leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final on Thursday, with Bebe levelling the aggregate scores at 2-2 in the 80th minute, but Borja Iglesias came up with a 92nd-minute effort for the hosts to secure a 3-2 success, with the Seville outfit progressing to the final.
Manuel Pellegrini's side are enjoying an excellent La Liga campaign, currently sitting third in the table on 46 points, but they are only two points clear of sixth-placed Real Sociedad, so their position in the top four is far from secure, and it will be a busy end to the campaign for the club.
Indeed, the Green and Whites are also competing in the Europa League, booking their spot in the next round of the competition by overcoming Zenit St Petersburg over two legs, and they will now take on Eintracht Frankfurt, with the first leg of the last-16 affair set to take place in Seville next week.
Real Betis have won two of their last three in the league, but they suffered a 2-1 defeat at Sevilla last weekend and will be aware that a couple of poor results in quick succession could see them drop out of the top four.
Los Verdiblancos held Atletico to a 1-1 draw when the two teams locked horns in the corresponding match during the 2020-21 campaign, but they lost 3-0 at Wanda Metropolitano earlier this season.
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Atletico, meanwhile, have responded impressively to their shock 1-0 home loss to Levante on February 16, winning their last two in the league against Osasuna and Celta Vigo without conceding a goal.
Last time out, Renan Lodi scored a brace against Celta, with the result leaving Diego Simeone's side in fifth position in the table, level on points with fourth-placed Barcelona.
The race for the top four is absolutely fascinating, with a number of clubs battling for the two positions behind Real Madrid and Sevilla, and Atletico will be desperate to ensure that they finish inside the Champions League spots, as their title defence this term has been incredibly disappointing.
Like Real Betis, the Red and Whites also have European commitments, with the capital giants due to travel to Manchester United on March 15 for the second leg of their last-16 Champions League affair; the tie is delicately poised following a 1-1 draw at Wanda Metropolitano on February 23.
Atletico's away form in La Liga this season has been disappointing, picking up just 18 points from 13 matches, and they will be taking on a Real Betis side that have won seven of their 13 home league fixtures this season.
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Team News
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Real Betis will be without key midfielder Sergio Canales through suspension, while Victor Camarasa, Juan Miranda and Martin Montoya are out of the contest through injury.
Head coach Pellegrini will make changes from the side that started against Rayo in the Copa del Rey, with Iglesias set to return at centre-forward, while Cristian Tello could replace Canales on the right.
Hector Bellerin is also pushing to return at right-back, while there should be a spot in the middle of the defence for Victor Ruiz, with Edgar Gonzalez dropping down to the bench.
As for Atletico, Stefan Savic will miss the match through suspension, and the centre-back is also carrying a muscular problem, which would have likely ruled him out regardless of the ban.
Mario Hermoso, Geoffrey Kondogbia, Matheus Cunha and Daniel Wass will also be unavailable for the Spanish champions this weekend through injury.
Simeone is expected to make changes from the side that started against Celta last time out, with Thomas Lemar, Rodrigo De Paul and Felipe all likely to come into the team.
Luis Suarez, Yannick Carrasco and Antoine Griezmann are all now available following recent problems, but it would not be a surprise to see the trio start the match on the bench.
Real Betis possible starting lineup:
Bravo; Bellerin, Pezzella, Ruiz, Moreno; Rodriguez, Carvalho; Tello, Fekir, Juanmi; Iglesias
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Felipe, Gimenez, Reinildo; Vrsaljko, Llorente, Lemar, De Paul, Lodi; Felix, Correa
We say: Real Betis 1-1 Atletico Madrid
Atletico will certainly be the fresher of the two teams, which is likely to count for a lot in this type of match. Real Betis have been so impressive in the league this season, though, and we believe that the home team will have enough quality to secure a share of the spoils on Sunday night.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 40.98%. A win for Real Betis had a probability of 33.07% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.72%) and 0-2 (7.01%). The likeliest Real Betis win was 1-0 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
