A pair of struggling Major League Soccer teams face off on Saturday as Atlanta United host the Chicago Fire at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The Five Stripes have picked up just a single point in their previous four MLS encounters, while Chicago are winless in their last six matches played in all competitions.
Match preview
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Atlanta United may have perfected the art of maintaining possession this season, but unfortunately, it takes more than that to come away victorious after 90 minutes.
Gonzalo Pineda saw his team possess the ball over 60% of the time for a third consecutive domestic encounter, yet they came away with nothing for the third time in their last four MLS games.
That finishing product has let them down, scoring only twice despite firing 24 efforts on target in those four games.
Four of their following five league games will be at home, which could reinvigorate this team, who have scored eight of their 11 MLS goals at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, where they are unbeaten in 11 consecutive domestic fixtures.
They have only been shut out in one of their previous 11 regular season home matches, tallying multiple goals in seven games over that stretch.
Statistically speaking, the Five Stripes have not conceded a lot of scoring opportunities, but the problem, as Pineda pointed out, is that the chances which they have given up are Grade A opportunities that their opponents have buried.
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The good times in the Windy City are a distant memory right now for Ezra Hendrickson and his side, who are second from the bottom in the Eastern Conference.
His tight defensive approach worked wonders at the start of the year, with the Fire going unbeaten in their opening four games, scoring five times while conceding only once.
Unfortunately their opponents have adjusted to that passive approach in recent matches, finding a way through their defensive alignment.
Chicago have yet to concede a first-half goal after nine games this season, though they have failed to keep their composure in the latter stages, conceding five of their seven goals with fewer than 20 minutes remaining.
At the beginning of this campaign, there was a lot of excitement surrounding the appointment of Hendrickson, and while this group have fared well defensively, they have not been nearly as entertaining as many had anticipated.
In their four previous visits to Atlanta, Chicago have had some miserable outings, losing each of those encounters while being outscored 11-2.
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Team News
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Dylan Castanheira and Brad Guzan will be out long term with Achilles injuries, Machop Chol and Dom Dwyer have leg issues, George Campbell has an adductor strain and Osvaldo Alonso is out due to a torn ACL.
Josef Martinez continues to recover from his knee surgery, Santiago Sosa and Caleb Wiley have lower-body injuries, while Matheus Rossetto remains questionable because of a pulled hamstring.
Marcelino Moreno moved into a tie for the team lead in goals, scoring his second of the campaign last weekend, while the club picked up goalkeeper Rocco Rios Novo on loan from Club Atletico Lanus in Argentina.
Atlanta sent Jake Mulraney to Orlando City before the MLS Primary Transfer Window closed this week, receiving up to $275,000 in General Allocation Money in return.
Chicago were missing Federico Navarro in their previous encounter through suspension, and they will be without Jhon Duran as well as Rafael Czichos, who were each sent off in the final 10 minutes versus the Red Bulls.
Spencer Richey is out with a head injury, Fabian Herbers continues to nurse a sore right hip and Kacper Przybylko is questionable due to a left calf strain.
Xherdan Shaqiri ended a four-match goalless drought for the Fire in MLS play, scoring his second of the season from the penalty spot, while Gabriel Slonina remains tied with Pedro Gallese for the league lead in clean sheets with five and former Orlando striker Chris Mueller has signed with Chicago from Hibernian in the Scottish Premier League.
Atlanta United possible starting lineup:
Shuttleworth; Gutman, M. Robinson, Franco, Lennon; Rossetto, Ibarra, Hyndman; Moreno, Conway, Almada
Chicago Fire possible starting lineup:
Slonina; Sekulic, Omsberg, Teran, M. Navarro; Gimenez, Pineda; Ivanov, Shaqiri, Gutierrez; Bezerra
We say: Atlanta United 1-0 Chicago Fire
Neither side are in good form at the moment, but we expect that home field will tip the scales in the favour of Atlanta.
The Fire should be a tough team to break down defensively once again, however they invite a lot of pressure into their third of the field, and we expect the Five Stripes to eventually find a way to score and end their current winless skid.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 67.16%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 13.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.33%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.01%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 0-1 (4.14%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atlanta United would win this match.
