Alaves will be looking to build on their shock victory over La Liga champions Atletico Madrid when they continue their 2021-22 campaign away to Basque rivals Athletic Bilbao on Friday night.
The 19th-placed visitors picked up their first win of the season at home to Atletico last time out, while Athletic will enter the contest off the back of a 1-1 draw with Valencia at Mestalla.
Match preview
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Athletic have won two, drawn four and lost one of their seven league matches this season to collect 10 points, which has left them in 10th spot in the table ahead of the next set of fixtures in Spain's top flight.
The Lions, who finished 10th in La Liga last term, made a strong start to the campaign, but they have only picked up two points from their last three matches, drawing with Atletico and Valencia, in addition to suffering a surprise home defeat to Rayo Vallecano on September 21.
Athletic took the lead at Valencia last weekend through Inigo Martinez, but Marcos Andre levelled for the home side in the 95th minute, with the contest ending in frustration for the Basque outfit.
Marcelino's side would move into sixth position, at least temporarily, if they win on Friday, though, and a record of just four goals conceded in the league this season shows that there is a strong base to build from.
Athletic have not enjoyed their recent meetings with Alaves, though, losing two of the last three contests, while the pair played out a goalless draw in the corresponding clash during the 2020-21 campaign.
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Alaves, as mentioned, picked up a shock three points on home soil last weekend, with Victor Laguardia's fourth-minute goal handing them a 1-0 success over the champions Atletico.
A disastrous start to the season had seen Javier Calleja's side lose each of their first five league fixtures to Real Madrid, Mallorca, Valencia, Osasuna and Espanyol, but they should now be in good confidence heading into Friday's clash with their Basque rivals.
Alaves are actually in their sixth straight season at this level of football, but they have ended the last two campaigns in 16th position, and it would not be a surprise to see another relegation battle this term.
El Glorioso would move out of the relegation zone if they manage to pick up another three points on Friday, and a record of just one defeat from their last seven La Liga meetings with Athletic should mean that Calleja's team head into the fixture with a positive mindset despite their position in the table.
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Team News
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Athletic will again be without the services of Yuri Berchiche, Peru Nolaskoain and Asier Villalibre on Friday through injury, but Yeray Alvarez and Oihan Sancet could potentially be involved in the squad.
Mikel Balenziaga had to be substituted against Valencia last time out but has been declared fit, so it would not be a surprise to see the same starting team sent onto the field for this contest.
Indeed, Inaki Williams is likely to be joined by Raul Garcia in a front two, while Iker Muniain and Alex Berenguer should retain their spots in the wide areas for Marcelino's side.
As for Alaves, Edgar Mendez remains on the sidelines with a knee problem, but Florian Lejeune and Pere Pons could recover from muscular issues to make the squad on Friday.
Head coach Calleja will have been delighted with his team's performance against Atletico last time out, and it would be a shock if he changed the 3-4-3 formation that caused the champions problems.
Joselu and Facundo Pellistri are both pushing for starting spots, but Mamadou Sylla should again get the nod at the tip of the attack, while Miguel de la Fuente is expected to retain his position on the right.
Athletic Bilbao possible starting lineup:
Simon; Lekue, Vivian, Martinez, Balenziaga; Berenguer, Vencedor, D Garcia, Muniain; Williams, R Garcia
Alaves possible starting lineup:
Pacheco; Navarro, Miazga, Laguardia; Aguirregabiria, Loum, Moya, Duarte; De La Fuente, Sylla, Rioja
We say: Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Alaves
Alaves - looking to move out of the bottom three - will have been boosted by their shock win over Atletico, but 10th-placed Athletic have been difficult to beat this season, and we are expecting the home side to edge a tight contest at San Mames.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 49.59%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.61%) and 2-1 (8.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.59%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Athletic Bilbao in this match.
