Atalanta BC will be aiming to keep their slim hopes of Serie A glory alive when they welcome relegation-threatened Brescia to the Gewiss Stadium on Tuesday evening.
Atalanta currently lie third in the table before Inter Milan take on Torino on Monday evening, whereas Brescia are nine points adrift of safety with six games left to play.
Match preview
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Atalanta's 2-2 draw away to table-toppers Juventus will certainly feel like two points dropped rather than one point gained as they strive to usurp the Old Lady in the Italian top flight.
Ruslan Malinovskiy's thunderous 81st-minute strike to put Atalanta 2-1 up was worthy of winning any game, but Gian Piero Gasperini's men succumbed to a second Cristiano Ronaldo penalty in the dying embers of the match following a handball by Luis Muriel.
Taking a point off the dominant force in Serie A is no mean feat and should be respected, but the result means that Atalanta currently sit nine points adrift of Juventus with six games left to play.
The stalemate with the Old Lady also brought Atalanta's nine-game winning streak in Serie A to an end in disappointing fashion for Gasperini, but with second-placed Lazio suffering their third defeat in succession at the weekend, the Scudetto race is far from done and dusted.
Gasperini's men will now endeavour to return to winning ways back on home soil, where they have won their last five and only failed to find the back of the net on one occasion this term.
Meanwhile, Brescia's battle to avoid the drop was dealt a huge blow as Roma comfortably swept the relegation candidates aside on their own turf at the weekend.
Things are looking increasingly ominous for Le Rondinelle who have now picked up just one win in their last 17 attempts in the Italian top flight, and a swift return to Serie B for last season's second division champions is looking all the more likely as the season draws to a close.
While the clash with Atalanta will not fill the Brescia faithful with optimism, Diego Lopez's men follow up the midweek fixture with bottom-of-the-table crunch matches against SPAL and Lecce to contend with.
The results from those two fixtures could spell the difference between Brescia rising above the dotted line or dropping straight back down to the second tier, but Lopez's men will arguably need nothing short of a miracle to secure their safety at this very late stage of the campaign.
A double from Mario Pasalic followed up by an injury-time Josip Ilicic strike gave Atalanta a comfortable 3-0 win in the reverse fixture.
Atalanta Serie A form: WWWWWD
Brescia Serie A form: DDLWLL
Team News
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Robin Gosens was forced to withdraw from the Atalanta starting lineup after picking up a suspected hamstring injury in the warmup, and it remains to be seen whether the German will be fit in time for Tuesday.
That could mean another start on the left flank for Timothy Castagne, but other than that Gasperini has a fully-fit squad to pick from for the visit of Brescia.
The Atalanta manager may ring the changes with games coming thick and fast, meaning that Malinovskiy, Muriel, Pasalic and Mattia Caldara could be in line for spots in the starting lineup.
As for Brescia, Dimitri Bisoli remains on the treatment table, but Andrea Cistana has returned to training following an ankle problem.
Lopez may opt for a more defensive set up in an attempt to keep the free-scoring Atalanta at bay, and Jesse Joronen will be hoping to reclaim his spot in goal having been replaced by Lorenzo Andrenacci against Roma.
Atalanta possible starting lineup:
Gollini; Caldara, Palomino, Toloi; Hateboer, De Roon, Pasalic, Castagne; Malinovskiy; Muriel, Zapata
Brescia possible starting lineup:
Joronen; Sabelli, Chancellor, Papetti, Mateju; Tonali, Dessena, Ndoj; Spalek; Donnarumma, Torregrossa
We say: Atalanta 3-0 Brescia
Atalanta are moving ever closer to an unprecedented 100-goal haul for the season, and they are now facing a Brescia side with the second worst defensive record in the division. Therefore, we cannot see any other result than a comfortable home victory for the Scudetto hopefuls over the relegation candidates.
Ben Knapton
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 72.76%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Brescia had a probability of 10.64%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.8%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.85%), while for a Brescia win it was 0-1 (3.27%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
