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Atalanta logo
Serie A | Gameweek 38
Aug 1, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Gewiss Stadium
Inter logo

Atalanta
0 - 2
Inter Milan


Djimsiti (25'), Toloi (44')
FT(HT: 0-2)
D'Ambrosio (1'), Young (20')
de Vrij (23'), Brozovic (56'), Handanovic (86')

Preview: Atalanta BC vs. Inter Milan - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Atalanta BC and Inter Milan, including team news and predicted lineups.

Atalanta BC and Inter Milan will both be looking to secure the runners-up spot in Serie A this season when they lock horns for a mouthwatering contest on Saturday night.

Inter are currently second in the table, one point clear of third-placed Atalanta, while fourth-placed Lazio are also in the race for second entering the final weekend of action in Italy's top flight.


Match preview

Atalanta coach Gian Piero Gasperini pictured on August 25, 2019© Reuters

Atalanta have never finished second in Serie A, while they were a bottom-half team between 2011 and 2016, having only secured a return to the top flight for the 2011-12 campaign.

La Dea have improved considerably in recent years, though, and will be determined to pick up all three points on Saturday to secure second before turning their attention to the Champions League, where they will face Paris Saint-Germain in the quarter-finals of the European competition on August 12.

Atalanta will enter this match off the back of a 2-1 success at Parma on Tuesday night, while they are unbeaten in Serie A since January 20. A record of 23 wins, nine draws and five defeats from 37 matches has left them in third, just five points behind the champions Juventus.

Gian Piero Gasperini's side are level on points with fourth-placed Lazio but sit third due to their superior head-to-head record, meaning that a victory over Inter would guarantee second spot in the table.

Atalanta will also be hoping to break the 100-goal mark in Serie A this weekend, having found the back of the net on 98 occasions in their 37 league games thus far, which is 23 more than Juve.

Inter Milan players celebrate Lautaro Martinez's goal on July 28, 2020© Reuters

Inter, though, will also be desperate to secure second, which would represent their best placing in Italy's top flight since 2010-11. Indeed, they have not finished higher than fourth in any of their last eight campaigns.

The Milan giants have fallen just short in terms of the title, but there is no question that the team have made significant progress under the leadership of Antonio Conte.

I Nerazzurri already have more points (79) than they have managed in any season since winning the title in 2009-10 (82), and the fact that they could equal that return this weekend is an indication of their improvement.

Inter were held to successive draws by Roma and Fiorentina on July 19 and July 22, but they have impressively won their last two, beating Genoa 3-0 on July 25 before recording a 2-0 success over Napoli on Tuesday night.

A win on Saturday would secure second spot in the table, although a point would also be enough for the runners-up position should Lazio fail to win at Napoli on the same night.

Atalanta Serie A form: DWDWDW

Inter Serie A form: WWDDWW


Team News

Lautaro Martinez in action for Inter Milan on July 25, 2020© Reuters

Atalanta will again be without the services of Josip Ilicic through injury, while central defender Jose Luis Palomino is a doubt with the muscular problem that forced him off in the first half of the clash with Parma.

Rafael Toloi is back from suspension, though, and should return in central defence alongside Bosko Sutalo and Mattia Caldara, should Palomino be unable to prove his fitness.

Gasperini has decisions to make when it comes to the final third of the field, but it seems likely that Duvan Zapata will again get the nod over Luis Muriel alongside Alejandro Gomez and Mario Pasalic.

Inter, meanwhile, will again be without the services of Matias Vecino and Stefano Sensi through injury, but Roberto Gagliardini is available after serving a one-game suspension against Napoli.

Lautaro Martinez started on the bench on Tuesday but will return to the starting XI for this game, meaning that Alexis Sanchez is likely to drop out despite his impressive form.

Diego Godin and Milan Skriniar should also return to the starting side, while Ashley Young and Christian Eriksen could come in for Cristiano Biraghi and Borja Valero as Conte prepares to shuffle his pack.

That said, Gagliardini's availability could see Marcelo Brozovic pushed further forward to the position just behind Romelu Lukaku and Martinez, meaning that Eriksen would likely start on the bench once again.

Atalanta possible starting lineup:
Gollini; Sutalo, Caldara, Toloi; Castagne, De Roon, Freuler, Gosens; Pasalic; Gomez, Zapata

Inter possible starting lineup:
Handanovic; Skriniar, De Vrij, Godin; Candreva, Barella, Gagliardini, Young; Brozovic; Lukaku, Martinez


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Atalanta 1-1 Inter Milan

There is no downplaying the importance of this match to both teams, despite the fact that neither can win the title. A point would be enough for Inter if Lazio do not overcome Napoli, and we are finding it difficult to separate these two sides on Saturday night, backing a low-scoring draw at the Gewiss Stadium.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 43.27%. A win for Inter Milan had a probability of 32.71% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.96%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Inter Milan win was 1-2 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.


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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter Milan33275179186186
2AC Milan33216664392569
3Juventus331810547262164
4Bologna331711548262262
5Roma32167957381955
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7Lazio33164134235752
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11Monza331110123543-843
12Genoa33912123540-539
13Lecce33811143048-1835
14CagliariCagliari33711153656-2032
15Hellas VeronaHellas Verona33710163144-1331
16Empoli3387182648-2231
17Udinese32416123048-1828
18FrosinoneFrosinone33610174063-2328
19SassuoloSassuolo3368193965-2626
20Salernitana3329222670-4415


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