Arsenal news: Top at Christmas, champions in May? What history tells the Gunners

Between December leadership and May conclusion, the Gunners face a past that insists on repeating itself.

Arsenal will arrive at Christmas once again at the top of the Premier League. The 1-0 victory over Everton put the Gunners back in the lead just hours after being overtaken, on the same day, by Manchester City – who beat West Ham United 3-0.

The scenario reinforces the consistency of Mikel Arteta's side, but also reawakens a ghost that insists on haunting the club: the difficulty in turning Christmas leadership into a title.

This will be the third time in four years that Arsenal end 25th December in first place. And the fifth time in their Premier League history. In none of the previous four occasions, however, was the trophy lifted in May.

A history that weighs against Arsenal

The first frustration came in 2002-03. Champions the previous season, Arsenal led at Christmas but were ultimately overtaken by Manchester United. Years later, in 2007-08, the script repeated itself: a drop in form in the final stretch and only third place, again with the Red Devils as champions.

Under Mikel Arteta's stewardship, the pattern has continued. In 2022-23 and the following season, Arsenal also led on the Christian holiday but saw Manchester City seize the spotlight in the decisive months. The most painful case occurred recently, when the Gunners opened up a six-point lead over the Citizens in December and still finished the season two points behind.

Now their rivals – still managed by Pep Guardiola – appear once again in the rearview mirror, just two points adrift, fuelling the doubt: will the outcome be different this time?

What does Premier League history tell us?

The overall record of the league shows that leading at Christmas helps, but guarantees nothing. In 33 complete Premier League seasons, the leader on 25th December went on to become champions on 17 occasions – just over half. In the other 16, the Christmas leadership proved illusory.

More than that, the English top flight has become an increasingly hostile territory for those who become complacent too early.

In the last four times the Christmas leader was overtaken, the title ended up in Manchester City's hands. In three of those campaigns, the turnaround came after considerable deficits: eight points behind Liverpool in 2020-21, four behind the same Reds in 2022-23, and six behind Arsenal the following season – on that occasion, the Citizens were in fifth place on the holiday.

This recent surge also reinforced a rare but growing statistic. The 2023-24 season was the fourth time a team outside the top four at Christmas ended up as champions. Before that, only Manchester United (1996-97), Arsenal (1997-98) and City themselves (2020-21) had achieved the feat.

Premier League Christmas leadership: symbolic, unstable and far from decisive

In total, there have now been nine seasons in which teams occupying third place or lower on 25th December finished with the title. The greatest example of a turnaround remains Arsenal themselves in 1997-98, champions despite being 13 points behind Manchester United – the largest deficit ever overturned in the Premier League era.

At the opposite extreme, the statistic also serves as a warning for those who lead too early. In 1998-99, Aston Villa arrived at Christmas in first place and ended up plummeting to sixth – the worst final position ever recorded by a Christmas leader.

It is in this context that Arsenal once again end Christmas as the benchmark of the league. The leadership reinforces the competitiveness of the London side, but history makes clear that the position holds symbolic value, not definitive.

For Arteta, the question is not whether Arsenal can lead – he has already proven that. The challenge, once again, will be sustaining that position when the schedule tightens and the margin for error disappears.

This article was originally published on Trivela.