Arminia Bielefeld entertain Borussia Dortmund on Saturday as the 2020-21 Bundesliga season continues, with the hosts looking to avoid a fourth successive defeat.
Dortmund, meanwhile, are searching for a fourth consecutive victory as they look to keep pace with title rivals RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich at the top of the table.
Match preview
© Reuters
After a bright start to their first Bundesliga campaign since being relegated in 2009, Arminia have found things considerably tougher in recent weeks, which was to be expected at some stage given the jump in quality from Germany's second tier.
Having been caught out playing from the back numerous times in the 4-1 defeat to Bayern Munich, there were similar naiveties on display in the 2-1 loss at Wolfsburg last weekend. Wout Weghorst was afforded the freedom of the penalty area to open the scoring before Maximilian Arnold pounced on a loose ball into midfield to double Wolfsburg's lead within a minute.
However, while Uwe Neuhaus will be concerned with how frequently his side are gifting their opposition chances, he will be impressed with the spirit which was once again on display. Arminia's first shot on target came in the 80th minute, but it was expertly converted from the edge of the area by Sven Schipplock with a drilled finish into the bottom corner. The Bundesliga newcomers pushed for an equaliser, with Manuel Prietl's last minute strike from distance deflecting onto the post before sailing wide.
Neuhaus has indicated that his side will not change their style of play, which may mean trouble against an attack as packed with quality and intensity as Dortmund's is. However, it could be a case of short-term pain for long-term gain, with survival ultimately the only thing which matters for his side this season.
© Reuters
Dortmund will travel to Bielefeld full of confidence having beaten their arch-rivals Schalke 04 by three goals to nil in the Revierderby last weekend.
Lucien Favre's side were frustrated by the inevitable Schalke defensive low-block in the opening 45 minutes, with the closest they came to scoring via Mahmoud Dahoud's rasping strike from 35 yards crashing against the bar. However, the deadlock was broken by Manuel Akanji after an exquisite move between Erling Braut Haaland and Raphael Guerreiro from a short corner allowed the defender to pounce from close range.
Haaland doubled his side's lead by chipping Fredrik Ronnow following a textbook counter-attack after great hold-up play from the 20-year-old, before Mats Hummels powered home from a corner to score for a 13th consecutive Bundesliga season and wrap up a convincing victory.
Dortmund also bounced back from last week's disappointing 3-1 loss at Lazio in the Champions League by beating Zenit St Petersburg 2-0 on Wednesday to move within a point of Lazio and Club Brugge in Group F. BVB were made to sweat on the three points, though, with two late goals from Jadon Sancho and Haaland enough to overcome the stubborn Russian side.
They should find chances a little easier to come by against an Arminia side who look to play more expansively, but equally their defence will need to be on guard against an energetic outfit determined to avoid dropping into the relegation zone.
Arminia Bielefeld Bundesliga form: DWLLL
Arminia Bielefeld form (all competitions): LDWLLL
Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga form: WLWWW
Borussia Dortmund form (all competitions): LWWLWW
Team News
© Reuters
Neuhaus will continue to be without attackers Cebio Soukou and Andreas Voglsammer, who have a torn muscle and hairline crack in the foot respectively.
The 60-year-old could certainly use more attacking options right now, with club legend Fabian Klos yet to score at this level having been the club's top goalscorer in eight of the last nine seasons in the lower divisions.
Favre, meanwhile, has the opposite issue, with defensive options Emre Can (coronavirus), Nico Schulz (torn muscle), Dan-Axel Zagadou and Marcel Schmelzer (both knee) all unavailable for the trip to Bielefeld.
Thorgan Hazard returned from injury from the bench in the recent wins over Schalke and Zenit, and Favre may be tempted to hand the Belgian only his second start of the campaign.
Arminia Bielefeld possible starting lineup:
Ortega; De Medina, Pieper, Van der Hoorn, Laursen; Prietl, Maier; Doan, Hartel, Cordova; Klos
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Burki; Meunier, Hummels, Akanji, Guerreiro; Witsel, Delaney; Sancho, Reus, Hazard; Haaland
We say: Arminia Bielefeld 1-3 Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund have been impressive at both ends of the pitch so far this season, conceding the fewest goals in the league, with only Bayern and Leipzig scoring more goals, and we expect them to have plenty of joy by pressing Arminia high up the pitch.
Arminia have shown resolve in all of their recent defeats, though, and scoring in another valiant defeat would arguably be acceptable to Neuhaus against one of the league's strongest sides.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Away Win:data
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 58.89%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 20.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.9%) and 0-1 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.68%), while for an Arminia Bielefeld win it was 2-1 (5.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
