Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 42.73%. A draw had a probability of 30% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 27.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.89%) and 2-1 (7.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.23%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.