Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigre win with a probability of 45.77%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Lanus had a probability of 25.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigre win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.32%) and 2-1 (8.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.96%), while for a Lanus win it was 0-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tigre would win this match.