Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Instituto win with a probability of 41.26%. A draw had a probability of 32% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 26.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Instituto win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.83%) and 2-1 (6.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.82%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Instituto would win this match.