MX23RW : Tuesday, March 19 11:09:12| >> :600:155319:155319:
[monks data]
Ajax
Eredivisie | Gameweek 25
Mar 7, 2021 at 11.15am UK
Amsterdam Arena
Groningen
Ajax
3 - 1
Groningen
Gravenberch (5'), Haller (54'), Tadic (77' pen.)
Kudus (48'), Klaassen (83')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Preview: Ajax vs. Groningen - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between Ajax and Groningen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Ajax head into their fixture with Groningen on Sunday looking to strengthen their grip of top spot in the Eredivisie standings.

Meanwhile, the visitors have put together a four-match unbeaten streak in the Dutch top flight, moving the club to within three points of fourth position.


Match preview

Ajax manager Erik Ten Hag pictured in December 2020© Reuters

Heading into the closing stages of last week's contest with rivals PSV Eindhoven, it appeared that Ajax were on the brink of losing their 11-match winning streak in all competitions and subsequently allowing PSV to get back into the title race.

However, having seen the hosts denied a second goal through VAR, the leaders netted a last-minute penalty through Dusan Tadic, delivering a hammer blow to their opponents.

While the gap remains just six points, there is a feeling that PSV have missed their chance to stay in the race for the top-flight crown, particularly having played a game more than Ajax.

Erik ten Hag's team are fully focused on winning the treble, a target made easier by their triumph over Heerenveen in the KNVB Beker semi-finals in midweek.

Ajax have now avoided defeat on the domestic scene since December 5 and it is difficult to see any of their upcoming opposition stopping them in their tracks.

From Groningen's perspective, they can take confidence from now possessing the second best defensive record in the division courtesy of their recent performances.

Just one goal has been shipped in four fixtures, leaving Danny Buijs's team with a record of just 24 strikes being conceded from as many matches this season.

The Trots van het Noorden also edged out Ajax in the reverse fixture back in October, a result which has contributed to Groningen holding one of the best returns at home.

However, as well as scoring just three goals in their most recent five fixtures, Groningen have also failed to win any of their last three away games.

Ajax Eredivisie form:
WWWWWD
Ajax form (all competitions):
WWWWDW

Groningen Eredivisie form:
WLWDDW

Team News

Nicolas Tagliafico in action for Ajax on February 20, 2020© Reuters

Ajax are again expected to be without defenders Noussair Mazraoui and Nicolas Tagliafico through injury.

Even with a Europa league last-16 tie against Young Boys on the horizon, Ten Hag is unlikely to name a weakened team for this game.

Buijs must decide whether to hand an opportunity to teenage striker Paulos Abraham, who scored his first senior goal off the substitutes' bench against Fortuna Sittard.

Jorgen Strand Larsen will expect to keep his place in the side providing that he has shaken off the knock which forced his withdrawal at half time.

Ajax possible starting lineup:
Stekelenburg; Rensch, Timber, Martinez, Blind; Alvarez, Gravenberch; Antony, Klaassen, Tadic, Haller

Groningen possible starting lineup:
Padt; Dankerlui, Te Wierik, Itakura, Hintum; Kaam, Schreck; Cruz, Suslov, Hankouri; Larsen


SM words green background

We say: Ajax 3-0 Groningen

After their near-miss against PSV, complacency is unlikely to be a factor at Ajax for the remainder of the season. With that in mind, we are backing the home side to cruise to victory, their cause helped by a couple of early strikes.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data


ID:437855: cacheID:437855:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:restore:7212:

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 75.01%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Groningen had a probability of 10.26%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.96%) and 3-0 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.61%), while for a Groningen win it was 1-2 (3.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.


Previews by email

Click here to get Sports Mole's daily email of previews and predictions for every major game!


Restore Data
Share this article now:
Ajax manager Erik Ten Hag pictured in December 2020
Read Next:
Sunday's Eredivisie predictions including PSV Eindhoven vs. Ajax
>
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1PSV EindhovenPSV26233081136872
2Feyenoord26195266214562
3FC Twente26165549252453
4AZ AlkmaarAZ26147553233049
5Ajax26118757471041
6NECNijmegen26109750401039
7Go Ahead Eagles2610793835337
8FC UtrechtUtrecht269983133-236
9Fortuna SittardSittard2697103344-1134
10Sparta RotterdamSparta2687113338-531
11Heerenveen2694134249-731
12Almere CityAlmere City2679102643-1730
13PEC Zwolle2677123447-1328
14Heracles2675143358-2526
15SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior26410123957-1822
16RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk2664162443-1922
17Vitesse2645172153-3217
18FC VolendamVolendam2635182667-4114

Subscribe to our newsletter


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!