Heerenveen are hoping to do the unthinkable on Wednesday and upset giants Ajax at the Abe Lenstra Stadion to book their first appearance in a KNVB Beker final in 12 years.

To do it they will need to knock off the current Eredivisie league leaders, who have lost just two games all season.

Match preview

Ajax players celebrate scoring against FC Midtjylland on November 25, 2020 © Reuters

Heerenveen shocked many when they beat Feyenoord 4-3 two weeks ago in the quarter-finals to reach the final four.

De Superfriezen will need another miracle in the semi-final if they are to have any chance of winning only their second Dutch Cup in their 100-year history.

The club has had an up-and-down league season, with only seven wins from 24 matches, and were well beaten 4-1 by PEC Zwolle earlier this week.

Heerenveen will need to be at their very best and change their recent track record against de Godenzonen if they are to pull off another cup upset on Wednesday.

Ajax are sitting pretty on top of the league and have claimed 57 points out of a possible 69 this season.

They have both the best attack in the Netherlands, scoring on average 3.17 goals a game, and the best defence, conceding on average 1.27 goals per game.

The reigning Dutch champions also have the historical wood over Heerenveen, claiming wins in 28 of the past 36 meetings between the two.

The two sides last met in October, when Ajax easily put Heerenveen to the sword 5-1 in the Eredivisie.

Heerenveen KNVB Beker form: WWW
Heerenveen form (all competitions): DWLWDL

Ajax KNVB Beker form: WWW
Ajax form (all competitions): WWWWWD

Team News

Ajax manager Erik Ten Hag pictured in December 2020 © Reuters

Nineteen-year-old American forward Ulysses Llanez will miss the semi-final against Ajax, having been sidelined since January 10 with an unspecified injury.

For Ajax, Andre Onana is serving a suspension and is unavailable, while there are injury clouds over both Noussair Mazraoui and Nicolas Tagliafico, and the duo are unlikely to feature against Heerenveen.

Left winger Dusan Tadic has been in electric touch for Ajax this season with 11 goals to go with his 10 assists.

He has received great support on the other flank by Antony, who has found the back of the net eight times and set up eight goals.

Heerenveen possible starting lineup:
Mulder; Floranus, Dresevic, Bochniewicz, Kaib; van Bergen, Halilovic, de Jong, Schone, J Veerman; H Veerman

Ajax possible starting lineup:
Stekelenburg; Rensch, Timber, Martinez, Blind; Gravenberch, Alvarez, Klassen; Antony, Haller, Tadic

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We say: Heerenveen 0-2 Ajax

Ajax look indestructible at the moment and are as effective going forward as they are the back. Heerenveen need a miracle to have any chance of stopping them.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Written by
John Davidson

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 64.58%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 17.24%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.84%) and 1-3 (7.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.71%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 2-1 (4.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.