Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage

Dec 30, 2025 at 4pm UK

Uganda
1 - 3
Nigeria

Mato (75')
Ikpeazu (66')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Onuachu (28'), Onyedika (62', 67')
Bassey (4'), Awaziem (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Uganda and Nigeria, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Uganda

All competitions

This competition

Last Game: Uganda 1-3 Nigeria
Tuesday, December 30 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Egypt	3	5	9
2	Uganda	3	0	4
3	Congo DR	3	0	3
4	Zimbabwe	3	-5	1

Nigeria

All competitions

This competition

Last Game: Uganda 1-3 Nigeria
Tuesday, December 30 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group A Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Equatorial Guinea	3	6	7
2	Nigeria	3	2	7
3	Ivory Coast	3	-3	3
4	Guinea-Bissau	3	-5	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uganda win with a probability of 36.96%. A win for Nigeria had a probability of 33.07% and a draw had a probability of 29.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uganda win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.32%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Nigeria win was 0-1 (12.42%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.

Result
Uganda	Draw	Nigeria
36.96% ( 1.54)	29.97% ( -0.26)	33.07% ( -1.29)

Both teams to score 42.09% (

0.56)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

34.9% (

0.72)

65.1% (

-0.72)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

16.04% (

0.5)

83.96% (

-0.5)

Uganda Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.22% (

1.41)

33.78% (

-1.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.55% (

1.5)

70.44% (

-1.5)

Nigeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.56% (

-0.52)

36.43% (

0.52)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.78% (

-0.53)

73.22% (

0.52)

Score Analysis

Uganda 36.95%

Nigeria 33.07%

Draw 29.96%

Uganda	Draw	Nigeria
1-0 @ 13.35% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 7.32% ( 0.26) 2-0 @ 7.25% ( 0.36) 3-1 @ 2.65% ( 0.19) 3-0 @ 2.62% ( 0.22) 3-2 @ 1.34% ( 0.08) Other @ 2.43% Total : 36.95%	1-1 @ 13.48% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 12.3% ( -0.34) 2-2 @ 3.69% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.48% Total : 29.96%	0-1 @ 12.42% ( -0.52) 1-2 @ 6.81% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 6.27% ( -0.35) 1-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.15) 2-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.92% Total : 33.07%