Africa Cup of Nations
Uganda
Dec 30, 2025 4.00pm
1
3
HT : 0 1
FT
Nigeria
  • Jamal Omar Salim Magoola 56' redcard
  • Jamal Omar Salim Magoola 57' redcard
  • Uche Ikpeazu 66' yellowcard
  • Rogers Mato 75' goal
  • yellowcard Calvin Bassey 4'
  • goal Paul Onuachu 28'
  • goal Raphael Onyedika 62'
  • goal Raphael Onyedika 67'
  • yellowcard Chidozie Awaziem 90'

Uganda vs Nigeria - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Uganda

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations
Last game
Dec 27, 2025 5.30pm
Uganda 1 - 1 Tanzania

Nigeria

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations
Last game
Dec 27, 2025 8.00pm
Nigeria 3 - 2 Tunisia

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uganda win with a probability of 36.96%. A win for Nigeria had a probability of 33.07% and a draw had a probability of 29.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uganda win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.32%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Nigeria win was 0-1 (12.42%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.

Result

Uganda 36.96% ▲ (+1.55)
Draw 29.97% ▼ (-0.27)
Nigeria 33.07% ▼ (-1.29)

Both Teams to Score: 

42.09% ▲ (+0.56)

Goals

Over 2.5 34.9% ▲ (+0.72)
Under 2.5 65.1% ▼ (-0.72)
Over 3.5 16.04% ▲ (+0.50)
Under 3.5 83.96% ▼ (-0.50)
Over 4.5 6.16% ▲ (+0.26)
Under 4.5 93.84% ▼ (-0.27)

Uganda Goals

Over 0.5 66.22% ▲ (+1.41)
Under 0.5 33.78% ▼ (-1.41)
Over 1.5 29.55% ▲ (+1.50)
Under 1.5 70.44% ▼ (-1.51)

Nigeria Goals

Over 0.5 63.56% ▼ (-0.53)
Under 0.5 36.43% ▲ (+0.52)
Over 1.5 26.78% ▼ (-0.53)
Under 1.5 73.22% ▲ (+0.53)

Score analysis

Uganda 36.95%
Draw 29.96%
Nigeria 33.07%
Uganda
1-0 @ 13.35% ▲ (+0.16)
2-1 @ 7.32% ▲ (+0.26)
2-0 @ 7.25% ▲ (+0.36)
3-1 @ 2.65% ▲ (+0.19)
3-0 @ 2.62% ▲ (+0.23)
3-2 @ 1.34% ▲ (+0.08)
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 36.95%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.48% ▼ (-0.03)
0-0 @ 12.3% ▼ (-0.34)
2-2 @ 3.69% ▲ (+0.09)
Other @ 0.48%
Total : 29.96%
Nigeria
0-1 @ 12.42% ▼ (-0.52)
1-2 @ 6.81% ▼ (-0.12)
0-2 @ 6.27% ▼ (-0.36)
1-3 @ 2.29% ▼ (-0.08)
0-3 @ 2.11% ▼ (-0.15)
2-3 @ 1.24% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 1.92%
Total : 33.07%

Head to Head

International Friendlies
Nigeria
Nov 20, 2018 3.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT Stephen Keshi Stadium (Asaba)
Uganda
  • John Ogu 45' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Taddeo Lwanga 27'
  • yellowcard Nicholas Wadada 30'
  • yellowcard Khalid Aucho 67'
  • yellowcard Godfrey Walusimbi 83'

Form Data

Uganda 1 - 1 Tanzania
Tunisia 3 - 1 Uganda
Morocco 4 - 0 Uganda
Uganda 0 - 0 Chad
Algeria 2 - 1 Uganda
Botswana 0 - 1 Uganda
Nigeria 3 - 2 Tunisia
Nigeria 2 - 1 Tanzania
Egypt 2 - 1 Nigeria
Nigeria 1 - 1 Congo DR
Nigeria 4 - 1 Gabon
Nigeria 4 - 0 Benin

Build-up

Feature