Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Gameweek 1
Sep 25, 2026 5.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Bingu National Stadium
  • Babatunde Adepoju 20' goal
  • Lloyd Njaliwa 64' goal
  • Francisco Madinga 76' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Mario Albano 28'
  • goal Joseph Dhata 48'
  • yellowcard Rehan Angier 84'
  • yellowcard Joseph Dhata 90'+1'

Malawi vs South Sudan - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Malawi

All competitions

South Sudan

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 48.28%. A draw had a probability of 27.48% and a win for South Sudan had a probability of 24.24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.62%) and 2-0 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.25%) , while for a South Sudan win it was 0-1 (7.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.

Result

Malawi 48.28%
Draw 27.48%
South Sudan 24.24%

Both Teams to Score: 

45.45%

Goals

Over 1.5 69.09%
Under 1.5 30.91%
Over 2.5 44.85% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 2.5 55.12%
Over 3.5 23.92% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 76.05%
Over 4.5 13.75%
Under 4.5 86.25%

First Half Winner

Malawi 31.02%
Draw 54.69%
South Sudan 14.3%

Team To Score First

Malawi 54.43%
No Goal 10.02%
South Sudan 35.55%

Corners

Over 8 27.67% ▲ (+0.04)
Equal 8 10.46%
Under 8 61.86% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 9 19.38% ▲ (+0.03)
Equal 9 8.3% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 9 72.33% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 10.5 13.24% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 10.5 86.76% ▼ (-0.02)

Malawi Goals

Over 1.5 42.1%
Under 1.5 57.9%
Over 2.5 19.4% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 80.6% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 3.5 7.19%
Under 3.5 92.81%

South Sudan Goals

Over 0.5 56.61% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 0.5 43.39% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 1.5 23.57%
Under 1.5 76.43%
Over 2.5 8.06% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 2.5 91.94% ▲ (+0.01)
Over 3.5 2.29%
Under 3.5 97.71%

Score analysis

Malawi 48.3%
Draw 27.48%
South Sudan 24.23%
Malawi
1-0 @ 12.92% ▲ (+0.01)
2-1 @ 8.62%
2-0 @ 8.47% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 5.03%
3-1 @ 4.19% ▼ (-0.01)
3-2 @ 2.11%
Other @ 6.96%
Total : 48.3%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.25%
0-0 @ 10.02%
2-2 @ 4.1%
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 27.48%
South Sudan
0-1 @ 7.98%
1-2 @ 5.79% ▲ (+0.01)
0-2 @ 3.51%
1-3 @ 1.88% ▼ (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.51%
0-3 @ 1.5%
Other @ 2.06%
Total : 24.23%