Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Gameweek 1
Sep 25, 2026 5.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Independence Stadium
  • Ebrima Colley 18' goal
  • Abubakr Barry 34' yellowcard
  • Mohamed Badamosi 83' goal
  • yellowcard Abdulsamed Abdullahi 22'
  • goal Bilal Njie 72'
  • yellowcard Abdulle Abdullahi 90'+6'

Gambia vs Somalia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Gambia

All competitions

Somalia

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gambia win with a probability of 55.42%. A draw had a probability of 24.91% and a win for Somalia had a probability of 19.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gambia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.96%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.6%) , while for a Somalia win it was 0-1 (7.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.

Result

Gambia 55.42%
Draw 24.91%
Somalia 19.68%

Both Teams to Score: 

45.68%

Goals

Over 1.5 70.22% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 1.5 29.78% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 2.5 45.61%
Under 2.5 54.39%
Over 3.5 24.38%
Under 3.5 75.62%
Over 4.5 14.02%
Under 4.5 85.98%

First Half Winner

Gambia 40.94%
Draw 45.72%
Somalia 13.34%

Team To Score First

Gambia 62.36%
No Goal 8.98%
Somalia 28.66%

Corners

Over 8 13.47%
Equal 8 5.57%
Under 8 80.96%
Over 9 9.76%
Equal 9 3.71%
Under 9 86.53%
Over 10.5 7.32%
Under 10.5 92.68%

Gambia Goals

Over 1.5 47.14% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 1.5 52.86% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 2.5 22.9% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 2.5 77.1% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 3.5 8.61%
Under 3.5 91.39%

Somalia Goals

Over 0.5 52.62% ▲ (+0.01)
Under 0.5 47.38% ▼ (-0.01)
Over 1.5 19.39%
Under 1.5 80.61%
Over 2.5 5.2%
Under 2.5 94.8%
Over 3.5 1.32%
Under 3.5 98.68%

Score analysis

Gambia 55.43%
Draw 24.91%
Somalia 19.67%
Gambia
1-0 @ 13.74%
2-0 @ 9.96%
2-1 @ 9.36%
3-0 @ 6.11%
3-1 @ 5.2% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 2.46%
Other @ 8.6%
Total : 55.43%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.6%
0-0 @ 8.98%
2-2 @ 3.8%
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 24.91%
Somalia
0-1 @ 7.07%
1-2 @ 4.89%
0-2 @ 3.04%
1-3 @ 1.37%
2-3 @ 1.12%
Other @ 1.31%
Total : 19.67%