Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Gameweek 1
Sep 25, 2026 5.00pm
Independence Stadium

Gambia vs Somalia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Gambia

All competitions

Somalia

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Gambia win with a probability of 55.42%. A draw has a probability of 24.91% and a win for Somalia has a probability of 19.68%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gambia win is 1-0 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-0 (9.96%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.6%) , while for a Somalia win it is 0-1 (7.07%).

Result

Gambia 55.42%
Draw 24.91%
Somalia 19.68%

Both Teams to Score: 

45.68%

Goals

Over 1.5 70.21%
Under 1.5 29.79%
Over 2.5 45.61%
Under 2.5 54.39%
Over 3.5 24.38%
Under 3.5 75.62%
Over 4.5 14.02%
Under 4.5 85.98%

First Half Winner

Gambia 40.94%
Draw 45.72%
Somalia 13.34%

Team To Score First

Gambia 62.36%
No Goal 8.98%
Somalia 28.66%

Corners

Over 8 13.47%
Equal 8 5.57%
Under 8 80.96%
Over 9 9.76%
Equal 9 3.71%
Under 9 86.53%
Over 10.5 7.32%
Under 10.5 92.68%

Gambia Goals

Over 1.5 47.13%
Under 1.5 52.87%
Over 2.5 22.89%
Under 2.5 77.11%
Over 3.5 8.61%
Under 3.5 91.39%

Somalia Goals

Over 0.5 52.61%
Under 0.5 47.39%
Over 1.5 19.39%
Under 1.5 80.61%
Over 2.5 5.2%
Under 2.5 94.8%
Over 3.5 1.32%
Under 3.5 98.68%

Score analysis

Gambia 55.42%
Draw 24.91%
Somalia 19.67%
Gambia
1-0 @ 13.74%
2-0 @ 9.96%
2-1 @ 9.36%
3-0 @ 6.11%
3-1 @ 5.19%
3-2 @ 2.46%
Other @ 8.6%
Total : 55.42%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.6%
0-0 @ 8.98%
2-2 @ 3.8%
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 24.91%
Somalia
0-1 @ 7.07%
1-2 @ 4.89%
0-2 @ 3.04%
1-3 @ 1.37%
2-3 @ 1.12%
Other @ 1.31%
Total : 19.67%