With time running out to claw back the deficit to their city rivals at the top of the table, AC Milan welcome mid-table Sampdoria to San Siro on Saturday afternoon.
While both sides won just before the international break, neither was able to hold their mid-season form throughout March, with the hosts' inconsistency perhaps set to cost them their first Scudetto in a decade.
Match preview
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Though, last time out, Milan moved to within six points of leaders Inter - whose pre-internationals fixture was postponed due to a COVID-19 outbreak, so still have a game in hand - winning the championship remains a tall order for the Rossoneri.
With a fast-closing pack just behind them in the contest for a top four place, Stefano Pioli's side now have all their focus firmly fixed on Serie A, having exited the Europa League in the last-16.
Ahead of their encounter with Sampdoria this weekend, their ongoing injury crisis appears to have eased, with returning stars Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Hakan Calhanoglu contributing a goal apiece in their 3-2 win over Fiorentina before the break and set to play a major role in the run-in.
On Saturday, Milan will certainly be eager to reverse their crumbling form at San Siro in recent weeks, as they have failed to win any of their last five home games in all competitions, with the last time they went on a longer such run being as long ago as 2013.
They do, though, have the edge over the opposition in recent times, as they have won four of their last six league matches against the Genoese outfit, losing just one of the clubs' last seven meetings in Milan.
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Sampdoria finally managed to halt their worrying decline throughout last month by beating struggling Torino last time out, though it was far from a convincing display from Claudio Ranieri's inconsistent side.
Goalscorer Antonio Candreva, whose first-half strike sealed a 1-0 victory against the Granata, has been involved in 11 Serie A goals for the club this season - with five goals and six assists being more productive than any other Samp player. That scarcely-deserved winner relieved the pressure building on his team, as they had begun to glance over their shoulders rather than looking upwards, towards a potential top eight finish.
In fact, in their previous five games, the Blucerchiati had managed to pick up only two points - against city rivals Genoa and relegation battlers Cagliari - while losing to Lazio, Atalanta and Bologna.
Nonetheless, Ranieri's men have virtually cemented their place in the top flight for next season, still sitting just inside the top half of the table.
After meeting Milan, the Ligurians must take on Napoli and Verona in their next two fixtures, representing a challenging return to league action. Despite their hosts' recent travails at the Meazza, hit-and-miss Samp will be hard-pressed to bolster their tally of four away wins this term with a second consecutive victory and would surely settle for a point.
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Team News
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Even though Milan's debilitating injury list has continued to shorten, Stefano Pioli has forwards Rafael Leao and Mario Mandzukic missing this weekend, with defensive pair Alessandro Romagnoli and Davide Calabria also likely to sit out through injury. Impressive loanee Fikayo Tomori will continue in Romagnoli's place and Pierre Kalulu should start at right-back.
Spain Under-21 international Brahim Diaz picked up a knock while away with La Rojita, so must be passed fit before taking a place on the bench, while Ante Rebic has overcome a hip problem and also seen a two-match ban reduced on appeal, making him a strong contender to start in the trio behind central striker Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
Ismael Bennacer is ready to re-form his formidable partnership with Franck Kessie in central midfield, following lingering injury concerns, so Sandro Tonali is expected to drop out of the XI.
Midfield regular Albin Ekdal is visiting coach Claudio Ranieri's most serious concern ahead of the trip to Lombardy, as the Swedish midfielder suffered a thigh injury during the recent World Cup Qualifiers.
Both Jakub Jankto, of the Czech Republic, and Denmark's Premier League-linked Mikkel Damsgaard scored while representing their nations and could feature on the flanks for Sampdoria, with Adrien Silva partnering Morten Thorsby in the centre, given Ekdal's potential absence.
Fresh from signing a new five-year contract, striker Manolo Gabbiadini will compete with Fabio Quagliarella and Keita Balde for the nod in Ranieri's front pairing.
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Kalulu, Tomori, Kjaer, Hernandez; Bennacer, Kessie; Saelemaekers, Calhanoglu, Rebic; Ibrahimovic
Sampdoria possible starting lineup:
Audero; Bereszynski, Yoshida, Colley, Augello; Candreva, Silva, Thorsby, Jankto; Keita, Quagliarella
We say: AC Milan 2-1 Sampdoria
Up against a Samp side with little to play for, Milan must surely put a halt to their miserable home form with a win on Saturday.
Though the erratic visitors can be dangerous on their day, the Rossoneri's stronger motivation should prove the deciding factor, with the previously prolific front four capable of clicking into gear again before their hard-earned top four place comes into jeopardy.
Top tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 55.24%. A win for Sampdoria had a probability of 22.92% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.36%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Sampdoria win was 1-2 (5.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.
