Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Honka win with a probability of 49.15%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 26.16% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Honka win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (8.53%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 0-1 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Honka would win this match.