Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 37.68%. A win for Ilves had a probability of 33.16% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.64%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Ilves win was 0-1 (11.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for HJK Helsinki in this match.