Champions League

Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 1st Leg

Jul 12, 2023 at 5pm UK

Bolt Arena

HJK Helsinki
1 - 0
Larne

(HJK Helsinki win 3-2 on aggregate)

Radulovic (3' pen.)

FT(HT: 1-0)

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between HJK Helsinki and Larne, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

HJK Helsinki

All competitions

Last Game: HJK Helsinki 0-1 Lahti
Saturday, July 8 at 12pm in Finnish Veikkausliiga

Goals
for

Larne

All competitions

Last Game: Coleraine 3-0 Larne
Saturday, April 29 at 5.30pm in NIFL Premiership

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a HJK Helsinki win with a probability of 58.14%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Larne had a probability of 19.31%.

The most likely scoreline for a HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.27%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Larne win it was 0-1 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for HJK Helsinki in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for HJK Helsinki.

Result
HJK Helsinki	Draw	Larne
58.14% ( 0.04)	22.54% ( -0.04)	19.31% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 52.05% (

0.1)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.28% (

0.15)

46.71% (

-0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.02% (

0.14)

68.98% (

-0.14)

HJK Helsinki Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.23% (

0.06)

15.76% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.11% (

0.12)

44.89% (

-0.13)

Larne Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.79% (

0.08)

38.2% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.03% (

0.07)

74.96% (

-0.08)

Score Analysis

HJK Helsinki 58.13%

Larne 19.31%

Draw 22.53%

HJK Helsinki	Draw	Larne
1-0 @ 11.12% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 10.27% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 9.89% ( 0) 3-0 @ 6.33% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.09% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.93% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.92% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 2.81% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.35% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.08% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.04% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.3% Total : 58.13%	1-1 @ 10.7% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.02% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.76% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.53%	0-1 @ 5.8% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.15% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.79% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.65% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.4% Total : 19.31%