Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 50.05%. A win for Fortuna Dusseldorf had a probability of 26.87% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.39%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Fortuna Dusseldorf win was 1-2 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.