Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 42.23%. A win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 34.24% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.14%) and 0-2 (5.96%). The likeliest Hertha Berlin win was 2-1 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.