Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 44.47%. A win for FC Koln had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.42%) and 2-0 (6.36%). The likeliest FC Koln win was 1-2 (7.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.