Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arminia Bielefeld win with a probability of 45.99%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 29.23% and a draw had a probability of 24.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Arminia Bielefeld win was 2-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.98%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 0-1 (7.1%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.