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Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Matteo Berrettini - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Monday's Wimbledon fourth-round match between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Berrettini, including predictions and their head-to-head record.

World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz will face his biggest test at this year's Wimbledon Championships when he takes on the 2021 finalist Matteo Berrettini on Monday.

Both players have only dropped one set across their three victories to reach the fourth-round stage, with those in attendance at Centre Court potentially in store for an epic contest.


Match preview

Carlos Alcaraz reacts at Wimbledon on July 4, 2023© Reuters

Alcaraz, who only turned 20-years-old two months ago, overcame a minor scare against the 25th seed Nicolas Jarry on Saturday to reach the fourth-round at Wimbledon for the second successive season.

The Spaniard won his first and only Grand Slam title to date at last year's US Open, before being forced to withdraw from the Australian Open at the beginning of this year due to injury. After fighting back from one set down to level proceedings against Novak Djokovic in the semi-final of the French Open last month, the Spaniard subsequently suffered from severe cramps, leading to an inevitable defeat.

However, he backed up his growing confidence on grass by winning at Queen's Club last month, which moved him back to the top of the ATP rankings. He is arguably yet to play at his fluent best at Wimbledon, though, with the under-rated Jarry almost taking him to a decisive fifth set at the weekend.

Indeed, the Chilean was a break up in the fourth set before Alcaraz fought back to prevail 7-5, ensuring he came out on top in an absorbing third-round tie that took almost four hours on a sweltering Centre Court underneath the closed roof.

The 20-year-old produced some excellent passing shots and delicate drop shots, but he may need to serve far more consistently if he is to progress against an even more capable opponent on Monday.

Matteo Berrettini celebrates at Wimbledon on July 9, 2021© Reuters

Indeed, after a hugely frustrating 12 months or so for Berrettini, the Italian appears to mean business once again at his favourite Grand Slam.

After powering his way through to the final at the All England Club two years ago, Berrettini won the opening set tie-breaker against Djokovic, before the Serbian fought his way back into the contest to win his sixth Wimbledon title.

That remains the Italian's only Grand Slam final appearance so far during his impressive career, which includes six Grand Slam quarter-final appearances in total. However, injury has forced him to miss the most recent two French Open's, while he was forced to withdraw from Wimbledon last year due to testing positive for COVID-19 on the eve of the tournament.

Those factors - as well as his surprising first-round defeat to Andy Murray at the Australian Open earlier this year - have seen the Italian's ranking plummet to 37th in the world ahead of this tournament, having reached a career high of sixth as recently as January 2022.

The 27-year-old has looked every inch a top 10 player during the first week at Wimbledon, winning nine consecutive sets since losing a first-set tie-breaker against his compatriot Lorenzo Sonego in the opening round.

The 19th seed Alexander Zverev simply had no answer for the Italian's serve in their third-round contest on Saturday, with the German only forcing one break point in the entire match, and Berrettini will be hoping that can carry him through against the formidable Alcaraz.


Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz poses with his US Open trophy on September 11, 2022© Reuters

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Jeremy Chardy 6-0 6-2 7-5
Second round: vs. Alexandre Muller 6-4 7-6(2) 6-3
Third round: vs. Nicolas Jarry 6-3 6-7(6) 6-3 7-5

Matteo Berrettini:

First round: vs. Lorenzo Sonego 6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(7) 6-3
Second round: vs. Alex de Minaur 6-3 6-4 6-4
Third round: vs. Alexander Zverev 6-3 7-6(4) 7-6(5)


Head To Head

Matteo Berrettini in action at the US Open on September 6, 2022© Reuters

Vienna (2021) - Quarter-final: Alcaraz wins 6-1 6-7(2) 7-6(5)
Australian Open (2022) - Third round: Berrettini wins 6-2 7-6(3) 4-6 2-6 7-6(5)
Rio de Janeiro (2022) - Quarter-final: Alcaraz wins 6-2 2-6 6-2

Alcaraz leads the head-to-head between these two players with two wins to one, but Berrettini won their only previous meeting at a Grand Slam event, with the Italian surviving a comeback from Alcaraz to defeat him on the way to reaching the Australian Open semi-final last year.

All three meetings have gone to a decisive set, suggesting Monday's contest on Centre Court could go the distance.


SM words green background

We say: Berrettini to win in five sets

Although Alcaraz will understandably go into this match as the favourite to progress, the Spaniard has looked a little vulnerable on his serve, which is a more important factor on grass than any other surface.

Berrettini, on the other hand, is yet to be broken at Wimbledon this year, surviving all six break points which he has faced. He has the powerful forehand to go with it to cause real problems on his opponent's second serve, and while he will almost certainly be pushed far harder on his own, we can envisage him making it through to his sixth Grand Slam quarter-final in his last seven attempts.

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