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Preview: Jack Draper vs. Andrey Rublev - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Monday's US Open fourth-round match between Jack Draper and Andrey Rublev, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

As the last British player left standing in the US Open singles tournaments, all eyes will be on Jack Draper when he clashes with Russia's Andrey Rublev in Monday's fourth-round battle.

The 21-year-old defeated American Michael Mmoh in four sets to reach the last 16, while his eighth-seeded opponent saw off France's Arthur Rinderknech in four sets.


Match preview

Jack Draper in action at the US Open on September 2, 2023© Reuters

There were no prizes for guessing who the crowd favourite was as Draper and Mmoh got underway at Grandstand on Saturday, as the revitalised Briton managed to silence the American contingent with a two-set lead before Mmoh began asking a few more questions of the 21-year-old.

Mmoh earned the first break of the third set to force a fourth, where Draper also lost his serve straight away, but the former's staunch defensive game was only effective for so long, as Draper posted a 6-4 6-2 3-6 6-3 victory in just over three hours.

A backhand volley at the net - his 52nd winner of the day - punched Draper's ticket to the last 16 of a Grand Slam tournament for the first time in his career, as the up-and-coming star bids to banish the injury problems that have plagued his 2023 season so far.

Following first-round exits at the Australian and French Opens, Draper - who will soon shoot up from his current ranking of world number 123 - was unable to take part in Wimbledon or any of the grass-court tournaments due to a shoulder injury, which had forced him to bid a premature farewell to Roland-Garros.

However, the former Next Generation ATP Finals participant is showcasing exactly what he is capable of when fully fit - also knocking out 17th seed Hubert Hurkacz in round two - and with all of Cameron Norrie, Dan Evans and Katie Boulter falling short in their third-round matches on Saturday, Draper is GB's last hope of singles stardom at Flushing Meadows.

Andrey Rublev reacts at the US Open on September 2, 2023© Reuters

Seeking to end Draper's career-best run at a major tournament is a man who knows Grand Slam disappointment all too well, as Rublev changes tack in New York following three successive wins over French opponents to reach another last-16 stage.

Following a pair of hard-fought successes over Arthur Cazaux and Gael Monfils, Rublev made lightning strike for a third time when he took on the imposing Arthur Rinderknech, who sought to avenge his compatriots' defeats at the hands of the Russian with a highly aggressive game.

The 6ft 5in Rinderknech did not hesitate to charge to the net against Rublev in a tantalising third-round battle, but the Frenchman's risks ultimately did not pay off, as Rublev capitalised on 45 unforced errors from his opponent to prevail 3-6 6-3 6-1 7-5.

After an underwhelming start, Rublev began to work his forehand to great effect and won 80% of his first-serve points en route to another US Open last-16 appearance - his third in the last four editions - while he also reached the quarter-finals of this year's Australian Open and Wimbledon.

However, Rublev is still waiting for his first semi-final appearance at a major tournament - his Wimbledon exit to Novak Djokovic represented his eighth quarter-final elimination - but in order to have a shot at redemption, he must first extinguish GB's dreams of US Open glory once and for all.


Tournament so far

Jack Draper:

First round: vs. Radu Albot 6-1 6-4 6-3
Second round: vs. Hubert Hurkacz 6-2 6-4 7-5
Third round: vs. Michael Mmoh 6-4 6-2 3-6 6-3

Andrey Rublev:

First round: vs. Arthur Cazaux 6-4 7-6[5] 6-1
Second round: vs. Gael Monfils 6-4 6-3 3-6 6-1
Third round: vs. Arthur Rinderknech 3-6 6-3 6-1 7-5


Head To Head

Madrid Open (2022) - Second round: Rublev wins 2-6 6-4 7-5
Citi Open (2022) - Second round: Rublev wins 6-4 6-2

Draper and Rublev will be butting heads on the ATP Tour for the third time on Monday night, and the Russian has had Draper's number during their previous two contests, both of which came in Masters events in 2022.

The pair's first meeting came during last year's Madrid Open, where Draper entered as a wildcard and defeated Lorenzo Sonego in the first round before tackling Rublev, who was stunned by the youngster but fought back to win in three sets.

Only two months later, Draper and Rublev would renew hostilities in the second round of the Citi Open - in which the Russian was the top seed - and that proved to be a far more comfortable affair for the 25-year-old, who won 89% of his first serves during a two-set triumph.


SM words green background

We say: Rublev to win in five sets

Unless injury rears its ugly head for Draper again, the 21-year-old should push Rublev to the limit on Monday, as the Russian has not been entirely convincing in any of his three victories at Flushing Meadows so far.

The Briton's venomous serve should cause Rublev a few problems, and he should fear no foe after already getting the better of Hurkacz in straight sets, but the Russian's experience might just win out as he reaches another Grand Slam quarter-final.

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