Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portimonense win with a probability of 47.52%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 27.07% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portimonense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (7.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Casa Pia in this match.
Result | ||
Portimonense | Draw | Casa Pia |
47.52% ( 0.6) | 25.41% ( -0.14) | 27.07% ( -0.46) |
Both teams to score 52.38% ( 0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.14% ( 0.27) | 50.86% ( -0.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.26% ( 0.24) | 72.74% ( -0.24) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.59% ( 0.38) | 21.41% ( -0.38) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
45.59% ( 0.59) | 54.41% ( -0.59) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.65% ( -0.22) | 33.35% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.02% ( -0.24) | 69.97% ( 0.24) |
Score Analysis |
Portimonense | Draw | Casa Pia |
1-0 @ 11% 2-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 4.36% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 2.63% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.84% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.42% Total : 47.52% | 1-1 @ 12.08% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 7.14% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.11% 3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.41% | 0-1 @ 7.84% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 6.64% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.1) 1-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.58% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.41% Total : 27.07% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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