Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 41.42%. A win for Vizela had a probability of 31.18% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Vizela win was 0-1 (9.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Maritimo in this match.
Result | ||
Maritimo | Draw | Vizela |
41.42% ( -0.09) | 27.4% ( -0.01) | 31.18% ( 0.1) |
Both teams to score 48.72% ( 0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.3% ( 0.07) | 56.69% ( -0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.35% ( 0.06) | 77.65% ( -0.06) |
Maritimo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.05% ( -0.02) | 26.95% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.71% ( -0.02) | 62.28% ( 0.02) |
Vizela Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.69% ( 0.1) | 33.31% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.07% ( 0.12) | 69.93% ( -0.12) |
Score Analysis |
Maritimo | Draw | Vizela |
1-0 @ 11.77% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.48% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.72% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 3.71% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.37% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.04% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.22% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.11% ( -0) Other @ 2.01% Total : 41.42% | 1-1 @ 12.93% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.98% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.66% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.39% | 0-1 @ 9.87% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.11% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 5.42% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.71% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.47% Total : 31.18% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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