Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 56.06%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 20.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.33%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.22%), while for a Maritimo win it was 0-1 (6.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
Result | ||
Famalicao | Draw | Maritimo |
56.06% ( 0.13) | 23.61% ( -0.06) | 20.33% ( -0.07) |
Both teams to score 50.36% ( 0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.2% ( 0.17) | 49.8% ( -0.17) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.2% ( 0.16) | 71.8% ( -0.16) |
Famalicao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.41% ( 0.11) | 17.59% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.84% ( 0.19) | 48.16% ( -0.19) |
Maritimo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.11% ( 0.03) | 38.89% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.38% ( 0.03) | 75.62% ( -0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Famalicao | Draw | Maritimo |
1-0 @ 11.88% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 10.33% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 5.65% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.67% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.6% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 0.9% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.66% Total : 56.05% | 1-1 @ 11.22% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.84% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.93% Total : 23.6% | 0-1 @ 6.46% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.3% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.05% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.67% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.45% ( 0) 0-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.44% Total : 20.33% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |