Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 47.71%. A win for Leeds United had a probability of 27.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Leeds United win was 0-1 (7.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aston Villa in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Aston Villa.
Result | ||
Aston Villa | Draw | Leeds United |
47.71% ( 0.13) | 24.77% ( -0) | 27.52% ( -0.13) |
Both teams to score 54.77% ( -0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.11% ( -0.08) | 47.89% ( 0.08) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.93% ( -0.08) | 70.07% ( 0.07) |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.87% ( 0.02) | 20.12% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.61% ( 0.03) | 52.39% ( -0.04) |
Leeds United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.57% ( -0.14) | 31.43% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.19% ( -0.16) | 67.81% ( 0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Aston Villa | Draw | Leeds United |
1-0 @ 10.14% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.13% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.03% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.35% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.02% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.74% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0) Other @ 2.83% Total : 47.71% | 1-1 @ 11.73% 0-0 @ 6.33% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.44% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.76% | 0-1 @ 7.32% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.79% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 4.24% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.62% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.1% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.82% Total : 27.52% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Arsenal | 37 | 27 | 5 | 5 | 89 | 28 | 61 | 86 |
2 | Manchester CityMan City | 36 | 26 | 7 | 3 | 91 | 33 | 58 | 85 |
3 | Liverpool | 36 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 81 | 38 | 43 | 78 |
4 | Aston Villa | 36 | 20 | 7 | 9 | 73 | 53 | 20 | 67 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 36 | 19 | 6 | 11 | 71 | 59 | 12 | 63 |
6 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 79 | 57 | 22 | 57 |
7 | Chelsea | 36 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 73 | 61 | 12 | 57 |
8 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 36 | 16 | 6 | 14 | 52 | 56 | -4 | 54 |
9 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 59 | 71 | -12 | 52 |
10 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 36 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 54 | 58 | -4 | 48 |
11 | Bournemouth | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 53 | 65 | -12 | 48 |
12 | Crystal Palace | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 52 | 58 | -6 | 46 |
13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 46 |
14 | Fulham | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 51 | 59 | -8 | 44 |
15 | Everton | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 40 |
16 | Brentford | 37 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 54 | 61 | -7 | 39 |
17 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 37 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 47 | 66 | -19 | 29 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 37 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 50 | 81 | -31 | 26 |
R | Burnley | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 40 | 76 | -36 | 24 |
R | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 37 | 3 | 7 | 27 | 35 | 101 | -66 | 16 |
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