Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 44.8%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 31.44% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.93%) and 0-2 (6.66%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 2-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Chesterfield in this match.
Result | ||
Rochdale | Draw | Chesterfield |
31.44% ( 0.31) | 23.75% ( 0.07) | 44.8% ( -0.38) |
Both teams to score 60.76% ( -0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.87% ( -0.21) | 41.13% ( 0.21) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.47% ( -0.21) | 63.52% ( 0.21) |
Rochdale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.66% ( 0.09) | 25.33% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.88% ( 0.12) | 60.11% ( -0.12) |
Chesterfield Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.37% ( -0.24) | 18.63% ( 0.24) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.06% ( -0.4) | 49.93% ( 0.4) |
Score Analysis |
Rochdale | Draw | Chesterfield |
2-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 6.48% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 4.45% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 3.42% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.88% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.04% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.18% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 2.54% Total : 31.44% | 1-1 @ 10.88% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.72% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.25% Total : 23.75% | 1-2 @ 9.15% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 7.93% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 6.66% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 5.13% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 3.73% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 3.52% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 2.15% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.48% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.48% Total : 44.8% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Chesterfield | 46 | 31 | 5 | 10 | 106 | 65 | 41 | 98 |
2 | Barnet | 46 | 26 | 8 | 12 | 91 | 60 | 31 | 86 |
3 | Bromley | 46 | 22 | 15 | 9 | 73 | 49 | 24 | 81 |
4 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 84 | 59 | 25 | 77 |
5 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 71 | 62 | 9 | 76 |
6 | Gateshead | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 88 | 64 | 24 | 75 |
7 | Halifax TownHalifax | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 58 | 50 | 8 | 71 |
8 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 74 | 83 | -9 | 69 |
9 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 70 | 45 | 25 | 65 |
10 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 46 | 15 | 18 | 13 | 63 | 60 | 3 | 63 |
11 | Rochdale | 46 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 69 | 64 | 5 | 62 |
12 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 70 | 82 | -12 | 60 |
13 | Eastleigh | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 73 | 87 | -14 | 59 |
14 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 60 | 67 | -7 | 58 |
15 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 46 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 69 | 63 | 6 | 56 |
16 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 60 | 72 | -12 | 56 |
17 | Woking | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 55 |
18 | Fylde | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 74 | 82 | -8 | 55 |
19 | Ebbsfleet | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 59 | 74 | -15 | 54 |
20 | York City | 46 | 12 | 17 | 17 | 55 | 69 | -14 | 53 |
21 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 59 | 73 | -14 | 52 |
22 | Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 40 | 59 | -19 | 46 |
23 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 46 | 12 | 9 | 25 | 54 | 85 | -31 | 45 |
24 | Oxford CityOxford City | 46 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 54 | 94 | -40 | 33 |
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