The Union may not be that much better on paper, but they have enough experience and always seem to find ways to win, and we expect that they will do that on Saturday.
Minnesota do not appear to have improved from 2021, and their lack of depth up high could allow the Union to key on Lod, while the rest of the team do not possess the same kind of quality as the Finnish attacking midfielder.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 47.71%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Minnesota United had a probability of 26.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.39%), while for a Minnesota United win it was 0-1 (8.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.
