Major League Soccer
May 13, 2023 at 6pm UK
Toyota Park
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chicago Fire win with a probability of 64.76%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for St Louis City had a probability of 15.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chicago Fire win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.9%) and 1-0 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.26%), while for a St Louis City win it was 1-2 (4.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chicago Fire would win this match.
Result |
Chicago Fire | Draw | St Louis City |
64.76% ( -3.15) | 19.7% ( 0.53) | 15.54% ( 2.62) |
Both teams to score 53.83% ( 5.25) |
59.46% ( 3.39) | 40.54% ( -3.39) |
37.07% ( 3.39) | 62.92% ( -3.39) |
88.21% ( 0.13) | 11.79% ( -0.13) |