Since this article was published, this game has been called off due to a coronavirus outbreak in the Birmingham City squad. A new date for the game will be confirmed in due course.
Manchester City Women welcome bottom-placed Birmingham City Women to the Academy Stadium on Sunday, when a win for the hosts could see them climb into third spot.
The Citizens are currently level on points with rivals Manchester United, sitting just behind them in fourth on goal difference, while Birmingham are eight points from safety and are seemingly certain to go down.
Match preview
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Gareth Taylor's side enter this encounter in brilliant form, currently on a seven-game winning run across all competitions, having only lost once in their last 17 matches.
Man City returned to WSL action last time out, after progressing in the FA Cup last weekend, and that cup win against Everton was followed up by another 4-0 win against the Toffees.
A Simone Magill own goal and strikes from Ellen White, Alex Greenwood and Laura Coombs secured those three points, which also brought the Citizens closer to Man United, now only two goals behind their rivals.
Taylor's team do not have to face any other side currently in the top five, suggesting that their run in is a more simple one than Man United, who have to face Chelsea on the final day of the campaign.
That being said, Man City must ensure that they do not show complacency against the side ranked bottom in the division, but that is unlikely as they have proven their strong character already this season, coming back from a poor start to the year which left some thinking Champions League football next season is out of reach.
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Birmingham have only managed to collect four points from their 17 games so far, and they will need to record at least three wins from their remaining five matches to have a chance of survival.
Darren Carter will still feel that is possible, as they play Everton, Brighton & Hove Albion and Aston Villa in their run in, but if they can pick up any points on Sunday that could give them the boost they need ahead of those winnable encounters.
The Blues travel to Manchester on the back of a 5-0 defeat against Chelsea in the FA Cup, while that followed a narrow 1-0 loss against West Ham in the Women's Super League.
Birmingham have conceded 43 goals this season, the worst record in the division, and none of the stats bode well for backing up how the Blues are going to get themselves off the foot of the table by May.
They did give Man City a scare in the reverse fixture, taking the lead on two occasions before being pegged back and eventually going on to give the Citizens a hard-fought 3-2 win.
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Team News
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City captain Steph Houghton remains sidelined due to injury, but she is the only major absentee for the hosts, who have overcome many injury problems this season.
Midfielder Coombs made her first appearance since January last time out, but she is expected to remain on the bench for the start of this encounter, with Keira Walsh, Georgia Stanway and Caroline Weir retaining their places in the middle of the park.
Janine Beckie could come into the starting lineup in place of Hayley Raso, with Lauren Hemp and White expected to be part of the home side's front three.
Birmingham will operate with a back five including Rebecca Holloway, Harriet Scott, Louise Quinn, Gemma Lawley and Jamie Finn, all looking to protect goalkeeper Marie Hourihan.
Libby Smith is expected to be the main focal point in attack, and she will be supported by Lucy Quinn and Veatriki Sarri, but the visitors are certain to have to defend for the majority of the 90 minutes.
Manchester City Women possible starting lineup:
Roebuck; Stokes, Greenwood, Kennedy, Bronze; Weir, Stanway, Walsh; Hemp, White, Beckie
Birmingham City Women possible starting lineup:
Hourihan; Holloway, Scott, Louise Quinn, Lawley, Finn; Robertson, Murray, Sarri; Lucy Quinn, Smith
We say: Manchester City Women 3-1 Birmingham City Women
Birmingham have shown some fight in particular during their games against Arsenal, as they threatened a late comeback with two goals, which is why the visitors could get on the scoresheet this weekend.
However, Man City are in the race for a Champions League qualifying spot, and they are expected to be able to use their quality and experience to ease to three points on Sunday.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Women win with a probability of 95.8%. A draw had a probability of 3.5% and a win for Birmingham City Women had a probability of 0.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Women win was 3-0 with a probability of 14.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (14.94%) and 5-0 (11.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (1.56%), while for a Birmingham City Women win it was 0-1 (0.39%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City Women would win this match.
