Ludogorets Razgrad will be looking to avoid making some unwanted history on Thursday when they host Braga in the Europa League group stage.
The Bulgarian champions have lost five games in a row on home soil in the competition and could become just the third side to lose six on the spin after CSKA Sofia and Rosenborg.
Match preview
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Ludogorets' most recent home European loss was at the hands of Red Star Belgrade three weeks ago, with Guelor Kanga scoring the only goal of the game in the second half.
That followed on from a 1-1 draw away at Midtjylland in their opening Group F match as Kiril Despodov struck to cancel out Gustav Isaksen's early opener.
The one point accrued by the Eagles so far leaves them third, five points behind leaders Red Star and two points adrift of Braga in the preliminary qualifying spot.
Braga could therefore take a big step towards advancing to the next round on Thursday, but the Portuguese side do not tend to fare well on their travels in the Europa League.
The Archbishops have lost four of their last six away games in the competition, including defeat to Red Star in their opening group game this campaign.
Carlos Carvalhal's men followed that up with a 3-1 victory against Midtjylland in the last round of fixtures, with Wanderson Galeno netting twice to inspire that comeback victory.
Braga played out a 1-1 draw on their only previous trip to Bulgaria and Carvalhal may well consider that a positive result here ahead of the sides meeting again in two weeks.
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Team News
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After his double last time out, Galeno has been directly involved in 14 goals in 17 Europa League appearances for Braga and will be the first name on the teamsheet.
Carvalhal rotated his side for the 5-0 Portuguese Cup win over Moitense at the weekend, but he will field his strongest available XI for the trip to Ludogorets.
That should mean Ricardo Horta and Mario Gonzalez linking up in attack, with the aforementioned Galeno on one flank and Iuri Medeiros on the other.
Like their opponents, Ludogorets also head into this contest on the back of a routine win last time out after brushing aside Tsarsko Selo Sofia in the Bulgarian First League.
Alex Santana scored as a substitute in that match and could come back into the starting lineup on Thursday, possibly alongside Stephane Badji in central midfield.
Ludogorets Razgrad possible starting lineup:
Kahlina; Sa, Plastun, Verdon; Cicinho, Badji, Santana, Pinas; Goncalves; Tekpetey, Sotiriou
Braga possible starting lineup:
Matheus; Couto, Tormena, Leite, Sequeira; Medeiros, Castro, Musrati, Galeno; Gonzalez, Horta
We say: Ludogorets Razgrad 0-1 Braga
Ludogorets have a terrible home record in the Europa League, and we can see Braga becoming the latest side to come away from Huvepharma Arena with all three points.
The Portuguese visitors are not the highest scorers on their travels in Europe, but one goal should prove enough here.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 51.56%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Ludogorets Razgrad had a probability of 24.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.63%) and 0-2 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.58%), while for a Ludogorets Razgrad win it was 1-0 (6.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Braga in this match.
