Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nantes win with a probability of 36.51%. A win for Brest had a probability of 34.22% and a draw had a probability of 29.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.47%) and 2-0 (7%). The likeliest Brest win was 0-1 (12.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Nantes would win this match.
Result | ||
Nantes | Draw | Brest |
36.51% ( 0.21) | 29.27% ( 0.12) | 34.22% ( -0.33) |
Both teams to score 44.09% ( -0.35) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
37.25% ( -0.41) | 62.75% ( 0.41) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
17.71% ( -0.3) | 82.29% ( 0.3) |
Nantes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.16% ( -0.08) | 32.84% ( 0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.59% ( -0.09) | 69.4% ( 0.09) |
Brest Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.64% ( -0.44) | 34.36% ( 0.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.94% ( -0.47) | 71.06% ( 0.47) |
Score Analysis |
Nantes | Draw | Brest |
1-0 @ 12.56% ( 0.17) 2-1 @ 7.47% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 2.77% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.6% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.63% Total : 36.51% | 1-1 @ 13.42% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 11.28% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 3.99% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.57% Total : 29.26% | 0-1 @ 12.05% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 7.17% ( -0.08) 0-2 @ 6.44% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.29% Total : 34.22% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 31 | 20 | 10 | 1 | 76 | 29 | 47 | 70 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 61 |
3 | Brest | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 58 |
4 | Lille | 32 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 48 | 31 | 17 | 55 |
5 | Nice | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 54 |
6 | Lens | 32 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 34 | 8 | 49 |
7 | Lyon | 32 | 14 | 5 | 13 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 47 |
8 | Rennes | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 51 | 43 | 8 | 45 |
9 | Marseille | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 44 |
10 | Reims | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 41 |
11 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 40 |
12 | Toulouse | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 40 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 47 | -12 | 36 |
14 | NantesNantes | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 29 | 49 | -20 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 32 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 63 | -26 | 26 |
18 | Clermont | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |