Primeira Liga | Gameweek 17

Jan 15, 2024 at 8.15pm UK

Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques

Guimaraes
2 - 1
Arouca

Silva (45'), Silva (64')
Pacheco (32')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Jason (8')
Montero (31'), Jason (40'), Trezza (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's Primeira Liga clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Guimaraes 1-0 Penafiel
Thursday, January 11 at 8.15pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Arouca

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Vizela 1-0 Arouca
Wednesday, January 10 at 8pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Vitoria de Guimaraes 2-1 Arouca

Despite their previous humbling by Benfica, Arouca will remain confident of getting some from this contest. However, we cannot ignore the consistency of the home side, who should have enough know-how to come through with a maximum return, potentially by the odd goal in three. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 49.9%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 24.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.61%) and 2-1 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.27%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (8.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Vitoria de Guimaraes in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Vitoria de Guimaraes.

Result
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Arouca
49.9% ( 4.91)	25.96% ( -0.4)	24.13% ( -4.51)

Both teams to score 48.14% (

-2.43)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.87% (

-1.39)

55.13% (

1.39)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.62% (

-1.16)

76.37% (

1.15)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.86% (

1.66)

22.13% (

-1.66)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.48% (

2.44)

55.51% (

-2.44)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.82% (

-4.54)

38.17% (

4.53)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.06% (

-4.65)

74.93% (

4.64)

Score Analysis

Vitoria de Guimaraes 49.9%

Arouca 24.13%

Draw 25.96%

Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Arouca
1-0 @ 12.74% ( 1.25) 2-0 @ 9.61% ( 1.36) 2-1 @ 9.25% ( 0.26) 3-0 @ 4.83% ( 0.88) 3-1 @ 4.65% ( 0.35) 3-2 @ 2.24% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 1.82% ( 0.4) 4-1 @ 1.75% ( 0.21) Other @ 3.01% Total : 49.9%	1-1 @ 12.27% ( -0.25) 0-0 @ 8.45% ( 0.45) 2-2 @ 4.46% ( -0.44) Other @ 0.79% Total : 25.96%	0-1 @ 8.14% ( -0.58) 1-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.91) 0-2 @ 3.92% ( -0.83) 1-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.58) 2-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.35) 0-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.47) Other @ 1.58% Total : 24.13%