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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wrexham win with a probability of 52.95%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 24.08% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wrexham win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.29%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-2 (6.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wrexham would win this match.
Result | ||
Wrexham | Draw | Crawley Town |
52.95% ( 1.39) | 22.98% ( -0.56) | 24.08% ( -0.83) |
Both teams to score 57.41% ( 0.96) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.13% ( 1.7) | 42.87% ( -1.7) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.73% ( 1.67) | 65.27% ( -1.67) |
Wrexham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.81% ( 1.13) | 16.19% ( -1.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.33% ( 2.01) | 45.67% ( -2.01) |
Crawley Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.5% ( 0.22) | 31.5% ( -0.23) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.11% ( 0.26) | 67.89% ( -0.26) |
Score Analysis |
Wrexham | Draw | Crawley Town |
2-1 @ 9.77% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 9.29% ( -0.35) 2-0 @ 8.45% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.93% ( 0.26) 3-0 @ 5.13% ( 0.19) 3-2 @ 3.42% ( 0.17) 4-1 @ 2.7% ( 0.21) 4-0 @ 2.34% ( 0.17) 4-2 @ 1.56% ( 0.13) 5-1 @ 0.98% ( 0.11) Other @ 3.39% Total : 52.95% | 1-1 @ 10.72% ( -0.34) 2-2 @ 5.64% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 5.1% ( -0.39) 3-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.19% Total : 22.97% | 1-2 @ 6.2% ( -0.15) 0-1 @ 5.89% ( -0.42) 0-2 @ 3.4% ( -0.22) 1-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.72% Total : 24.08% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Stockport CountyStockport | 46 | 27 | 11 | 8 | 96 | 48 | 48 | 92 |
P | Wrexham | 46 | 26 | 10 | 10 | 89 | 52 | 37 | 88 |
P | Mansfield TownMansfield | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 90 | 47 | 43 | 86 |
4 | MK Dons | 46 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 83 | 68 | 15 | 78 |
5 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 46 | 21 | 8 | 17 | 73 | 68 | 5 | 71 |
6 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69 | 65 | 4 | 71 |
7 | Crawley TownCrawley | 46 | 21 | 7 | 18 | 73 | 67 | 6 | 70 |
8 | BarrowBarrow | 46 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 62 | 56 | 6 | 69 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 46 | 19 | 12 | 15 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 69 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 46 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 65 |
11 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 69 | 73 | -4 | 65 |
12 | Gillingham | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 46 | 57 | -11 | 64 |
13 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 46 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 60 | 69 | -9 | 63 |
14 | Notts County | 46 | 18 | 7 | 21 | 89 | 86 | 3 | 61 |
15 | Morecambe | 46 | 17 | 10 | 19 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 58 |
16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 46 | 17 | 6 | 23 | 67 | 70 | -3 | 57 |
17 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 46 | 16 | 9 | 21 | 63 | 71 | -8 | 57 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 46 | 16 | 7 | 23 | 62 | 76 | -14 | 55 |
19 | Swindon TownSwindon | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 77 | 83 | -6 | 54 |
20 | Salford City | 46 | 13 | 12 | 21 | 66 | 82 | -16 | 51 |
21 | Grimsby Town | 46 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 57 | 74 | -17 | 49 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 46 | 11 | 12 | 23 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 45 |
R | Sutton UnitedSutton | 46 | 9 | 15 | 22 | 59 | 84 | -25 | 42 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 46 | 11 | 9 | 26 | 44 | 78 | -34 | 42 |
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