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League One
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League One | Gameweek 17
Nov 11, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Barnsley

Derby
3 - 0
Barnsley

Collins (35' pen., 63'), Forsyth (48')
Collins (17'), Forsyth (36')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Russell (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Derby County and Barnsley, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Derby 4-1 Wolves U21s
Wednesday, November 8 at 7pm in EFL Trophy

Barnsley

All competitions
League One
Last Game: Barnsley 3-3 Horsham
Friday, November 3 at 7.45pm in FA Cup

We said: Derby County 1-1 Barnsley

 Despite both sides finding themselves in and around the playoff places at this early stage, neither are yet to truly kick into gear so far this term, and we do not envisage either team outclassing the other at Pride Park on Saturday and instead opt for a share of the spoils. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 51.96%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Barnsley had a probability of 23.45%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Barnsley win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawBarnsley
51.96% (0.015000000000001 0.02) 24.59% (0.0010000000000012 0) 23.45% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)
Both teams to score 51.46% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.61% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)50.39% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.67% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01)72.32% (0.012999999999991 0.01)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.62% (0.0019999999999953 0)19.37% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.83%51.17%
Barnsley Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.83% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)36.17% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.04% (-0.021999999999998 -0.02)72.95% (0.021999999999991 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 51.96%
    Barnsley 23.45%
    Draw 24.58%
Derby CountyDrawBarnsley
1-0 @ 11.5% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.6%
2-0 @ 9.44% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 5.25%
3-0 @ 5.16% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-2 @ 2.67% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
4-1 @ 2.16%
4-0 @ 2.12% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-2 @ 1.1%
Other @ 2.97%
Total : 51.96%
1-1 @ 11.69%
0-0 @ 7.01% (0.0040000000000004 0)
2-2 @ 4.88% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-3 @ 0.91% (-0.001 -0)
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 24.58%
0-1 @ 7.13%
1-2 @ 5.95% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
0-2 @ 3.62% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
1-3 @ 2.02% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-3 @ 1.65% (-0.002 -0)
0-3 @ 1.23% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 1.86%
Total : 23.45%

How you voted: Derby vs Barnsley

Derby County
57.1%
Draw
14.3%
Barnsley
28.6%
7
Head to Head
Feb 25, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 34
Barnsley
4-1
Derby
Cole (21', 45+2'), Phillips (33'), Thomas (90+4')
McGoldrick (35')
Jan 8, 2023 12.30pm
Third Round
Derby
3-0
Barnsley
Collins (45+1' pen.), Barkhuizen (60'), Knight (79')
> Preview
Aug 13, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 3
Derby
2-1
Barnsley
McCarthy (8' og.), Mendez-Laing (35')
Cashin (47')
Benson (64')
McCarthy (62')
Mar 5, 2022 3pm
Gameweek 36
Derby
2-0
Barnsley
Morrison (22', 47')

Wolfe (7'), Morris (90+4')
> Preview
Nov 3, 2021 7.45pm
Gameweek 16
Barnsley
2-1
Derby
Adeboyejo (39'), Leya Iseka (50')
Woodrow (26'), Brittain (64'), Andersen (81')
Baldock (24')
Morrison (15'), Buchanan (50')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CPortsmouth462813578413797
3Bolton WanderersBolton462512986513587
4Peterborough UnitedPeterborough462591289612884
5Oxford UnitedOxford Utd4622111379562377
6Barnsley4621131282641876
7Lincoln CityLincoln4620141265402574
8Blackpool4621101565481773
9Stevenage4619141357461171
10Wycombe WanderersWycombe461714156055565
11Leyton Orient461811175355-265
12Wigan AthleticWigan462010166356762
13Exeter CityExeter461710194661-1561
14Northampton TownNorthampton46179205766-960
15Bristol Rovers46169215268-1657
16Charlton AthleticCharlton461120156465-153
17Reading461611196870-253
18Cambridge UnitedCambridge461212223961-2248
19Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury46139243567-3248
20Burton Albion461210243967-2846
RCheltenham TownCheltenham46128264165-2444
RFleetwood TownFleetwood461013234972-2343
RPort Vale461011254174-3341
RCarlisle UnitedCarlisle4679304181-4030
> League One Full Table


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